How These NFL, NBA and MLB Betting Factors Provide Long Term Profits
The results of sporting events cannot be known in advance unless you have a crystal ball. The betting public generally provides an accurate assessment of the respective probabilities of the results. Odds become more accurate from the betting public shaping a bookmaker’s opening line and exposing it to public appraisal. The public will rely on betting trends, general consensus, top rated NFL or NBA picks that are part of the herd instinct.
The value of the line is a market perception applied to the psychology of the bettor
Very sharp bettors will have their own ideas about opening lines and when they differ with the bookmakers. Sharps bet quickly and re-shape the markets. High precision individuals are best at separating built in hype from the reality of probable results. As NFL betting market odds become more apparent, more people place bets on their favorite NFL picks or some college alumni NCAA pick to back his loyalty. Being stuck on impulse or emotional betting is a losing proposition. The market generally moves to its most efficient position despite the amateur bettors who are sometimes right or get lucky. The more bets made, the more accurate the average odds fall in to place. Data inputs are a necessary tool to use for betting NFL numbers when they fall in to place.
The betting of high precision individuals has limited participants and their decisions are not made without consensus. When other less sophisticated bettors jump in and there is a total absence of sharps to counter balance the market, amateur bettors are in control. The bettors that control the movement of a market are generally bettors from a wide spectrum of knowledge and experience. There is often a specific time difference that groups place their bets.
The importance of understanding behavioral nuances and how they can affect rational risk assessment is becoming more important. As already mentioned, sharp players tend to act quickly on the opening line, while public money places bets closest to game times. This reflects on the behavior angle and how the betting public thinks which team they are more familiar to them. They tend to bet on which team they recall winning more often or they just bet on word of mouth from old news or rumor.
These lazy judgments normally result in more money on the favorite, pushing the market away from its most efficient position. This is an example of how the betting decision of the public crowds can be replaced by following the herd mentality. Betting on the favorite and the over total is the most recognized betting pattern in the public betting mind-set.
The books know it but sometimes their shaded line does not matter if the public bettors are on target
Public money may distort rather than reverse a market, but this kind of collectively poor reasoning is successful sometimes when the collective consensus is correct. It was evident in Super Bowl 51 between the Patriots and Falcons.The Super Bowl is the biggest single sporting event of the year but the odds are controlled by the betting public more than other betting events.
The betting public did affect the game results by their almost perfect betting balance between the Patriots and the Falcon. Sportsbooks reported the “perfect storm” of total wages on the big game. The opening line two weeks before game time was the Patriots at -3 and did not move for two weeks as the public betting was evenly divided on each team.
The public perception was an even 50/50 split with no line adjustment which was highly unusual for any game. Not even the biggest whale bettors could make an impact on the line with their 5, 6 and even 7 figure bets. They could not move the line because of the enormous amount of public betting —- the Super Bowl always sets betting records worldwide and especially in Vegas.
The public tug-of-war between the favorite and dog was a standoff which indicated a very close game with overtime a possibility. The final result was overtime with the Patriots winning by 6 points instead of the usual 3 point winning margin when teams play overtime. The game had wildly different half-times but the final result was what the public predicted and their most common bet cashed out —- the favorite and over bet in a most historic game that had a “twilight zone” effect.
Other factors to consider for parlay or teaser bets
There are some new NFL betting factors to consider with parlays and teasers. Some sportsbooks recently decided to replace the 6 point teaser with the 6.5 point teaser laying -120. They like to shade their numbers with the extra half points and get more juice from the bettor. Parlays are receiving those shaded points — usually a half — which seems to benefit the bettor if he is adding points. The books do not care which way you bet, they just want the extra vig for these exotic bets which the books love to accept
Are your NFL betting teams average or just unlucky is a betting factor to consider. It is important to get an accurate handle if a team is playing to their potential – not how the media is reporting on them. Are they losing games they should win with poor execution and lackluster effort. If they are playing well it could be strength of schedule or some bad breaks at key points in the game. Have they been losing by a lot or are they just losing by a few points. It could be one particular problem on special teams or defensive lapses. NFL betting trends can start with teams that are good but just not winning. Once a team corrects their bad habits, a betting trend can start you on a winning streak when the line is under-valued and favors teams on the verge of a break-out month or longer.
Betting factors revolve around the scheduling cycle of home and road games. Measuring wins and losses with a detailed perspective is part of your handicapping skills. Comparing teams that have played a weak or strong schedule early in the season is deceiving. Have they played down to a weaker team with sloppy play mistakes and losing their composure.
Perhaps they are winning close games but not covering the spread as a favorite. Early losses in a schedule against top teams is expected but they played well and a last quarter fumble caused their loss. Wins and losses come and go but a schedule is your best road map to what direction your NFL picks should ride. Your NCAA college football picks should also be part of the schedule road map as mis-matches are very common in NCAA teams gaps of talent where you can lay 28 points without too much sweat.
Are there legitimate excuses for your team losses or just early struggles that can be adjusted. If there is an obvious reason for the early struggles, take the time to look past the hype and decide if what is happening on the field is a future trend. Has a significant change in scheme or philosophy happened that has taken some time to work properly. If you can identify a trend developing you can have a better sense of whether those struggles are likely to continue and bet against them.
Once the excuses are no longer present you might reasonably expect the results to be different
How is their public perception and support base. Last year, an NFL home team was booed at half-time for a poor showing. Have their fans remained loyal despite their struggles or have they voiced their displeasure against the team. Fans can be very fickle and become distant and discouraged until they see a resurgence. The fans can be especially fickle about their team`s performance if the team played poorly in the beginning but recovered with success on the field.
When the fans turn against their team, there can be some value when the team is ready to respond and overcome their public perception of weakness. Most amateur bettors have an emotional attachment to some teams which clouds their judgement. A lot of successful bettors are called “contrary bettors” because they bet against public perception and the inflated spreads that are part of this strategy.
MLB betting factors are different from NFL or NBA betting
Baseball has their own unique season for those summer months with playoffs extending to early fall and the start of NFL and NCAA football. MLB betting is a moneyline, run line and totals line. Different factors include no point spread, no time clock and a plus money odds for the 1.5 run line. Baseball streaks are common due to a long season. The Houston Astros put 13 wins in a row while the NY Yankees are winning with pitching going under the total 10 games in a row. MLB picks have a wide variety of betting trends and many opportunities for long term profits over a long season. Betting the run line at minus 1.5 runs is the best value with no vig and profiting more than you risk.Teams on average will usually play a one run game about 28 to 32 percent over the season. The other 70 percent of their games are won or lost by 2 runs or more. There are good sound betting factors to look for that will sustain long term profits if you know when your numbers become a value bet. Smart bettors do not bet favorite teams but bet favorite numbers.
bfraser1011@gmail.com
