Should I Budget More for my NFL and NCAA Picks than the Upcoming NBA Season
The fundamental challenge for serious bettors is to find a betting edge over the bookmaker, exchange or casino. Finding an edge is the job of a profitable bettor and you need time to process what is available. You may feel more comfortable with NFL picks, NCAAF picks or NBA betting.
The process is one of elimination and what sport is more profitable from your perspective. Betting opportunities exist in each sport but research and timing are the key elements for success.
Margins between success and failure
A well-known denominator among sports bettors is that the margin between success and failure is slim. The margin between making a profit or losing money is usually how well your perceived edge was a real advantage. The margin of success is the measuring value of the edge you found and how it supported the outcome of your wager.
And while margins are fundamental to making money, a large percentage of bettors are oblivious to their impact. Margins give bettors a better chance to win. How many points did your winning edge cover the spread or your margin of victory.
Once you understand margins, you have identified an advantage that a bookmaker holds over you. Now you need to find ways to counteract that edge.
A little extra knowledge
One way you can get a jump over a bookie is finding extra knowledge by using other data markets. Working with computer data is an advanced betting tool at your disposal. NFL betting trends, NCAAF mis-matches and NBA betting offers you more than the oddsmaker can predict within an accurate range.
There is no magic bullet here. Bookmakers are experienced and have vast data at their disposal – but they have their weaknesses. They have their computer software to support their job of creating a betting market for the general betting public.
This can be the books edge to produce numbers that are close to the final results. To offset this advantage, you need your own numbers to compare from your own database and find an edge.
Keeping your learning experience current
Knowledge is a necessary component but it does not guarantee success. If you find what is already common knowledge it will be built into the odds. Real value comes from information as close to the source as possible, your own handicapping skills.
You have the final say in your wagering selections and not some machine. But using a simulating software database is the best way to keep up with the bookmaker and his use of knowledge via computer.
Speeding up the dissemination of information is now available through online tools and services. However, it’s equally accelerated the time it takes information to become common knowledge. It has also increased the amount of speculation and false assumptions.
Filtering through what is relevent
Getting an edge through timely information can be identifying reliable sources. Twitter feeds that might be leaking team formations, updated injury news or significant line moves are examples. Following a credible source of information is a part of searching around the many football outlets for the best analysis.
General public feeds like Twitter and other social media maybe too vague and suited for the general betting public. You need a more detailed review than just an overall summary. Betting trends can end, your NBA picks can be based on injury reports with no updates or a variety of mis-guided information. How to decipher what is relevant requires good instincts.
Facts, figure and news form a good basis for analysis.You have to develop a mind-set that is insightful and able to “read between the lines”. Good information goes stale and misleading information leads you down a path of assumption that is off course. How to read the line is your biggest asset and the ability to be totally objective without bias.
Learning along the way
Most sports bettors know just enough to make them dangerous. There is a big difference between being knowledgeable about the NFL and your NFL betting picks. Being able to name the starting offensive line for the Cowboys is not likely to help you win a bet.
Many sports bettors are competing against other bettors, who spend countless hours on handicapping, studying trends, injuries, and betting angles. If you fail to study the games, find somebody who does it for a living. A reputable sports service is skilled with sports betting professionals.
The sports betting industry is a major investment market for a limited number of successful traders. Alternative investment markets are a popular destination for investors with excess cash waiting for a decent return on investment. Most stocks are tied into the economic news with no parameters and direction. It is becoming more difficult for even savvy investors to time the bottom.
The market is the learning center
The sports betting market has been around a long time with some controversy in the earlier years. However, a vibrant market exists in today’s highly competitive sports arena. The regulated Nevada sports books have the monopoly on legalized sports betting but more states will expand the sports betting industry with more bettor finding their niche. Some will focus on one sports while others will look at other sporting opportunities.
There are basic sports betting rules to follow if you want to keep your sanity when betting on sports. If you want to become a successful player in the billion-dollar-a-year sports gambling industry, you need a disciplined mentality and luck. It can become the road to nowhere without an iron stomach and a separate bank roll.
You need to establish some cool headed strategy to deal with the emotional side of betting. How do you find ways to “even the odds” in your betting process. Is your personality equipped to enter a field of uncertainty to discover your odds of beating the number over the long run.
Extend your learning experience
There is only one proven way to win consistently although having lady-luck on your side is also a major plus. You have to know the sport you are betting on and you have to select those games where the odds are in your favor. The books numbers cannot be on the mark all the time.
Mistakes are made and you need to see the gap and seize the opportunity to profit from those mistakes. There’s no magic formula and no “insider” secrets. But there are ways to increase your chances to win more than you lose.
The biggest problem for most gamblers is chasing after winners when you are having a losing day. You need to step away and limit your losses without chasing late bets to try and recoup your early losses. When you lose on earlier NFL games, do not chase late games. It becomes worse by betting a couple of late games without much discipline and lose more money.
Your impulsive side can serve you wrong
There is no need to chase bad bets with bad decisions. Losses are inevitable. It is how you limit your losses and not to fall into a trap. Pick the games you’re going to bet ahead of time. Don’t compound your problems by trying to double it or win it back by betting on a game you didn’t want to bet on in the first place. This is a hard rule to follow but if you want to win consistently, you have to follow it.
The walk away rule also applies before the games as well. If you look at the point spreads in the morning and nothing appeals to you, don’t bet. Oddsmakers are good at what they do. Having patience is waiting for your spot. Some games just appeal to your instincts and you will feel it. Trust your confidence in a game you like and take a stance. You need a belief system to tune in when your focused for betting.
How to balance your decision making process
Do not bet on your favorite team. You have to remain unbiased and objective in every way. You can have a few teams you like more than others. However, you can pick your spot to bet on those teams or bet against them.
When you bet, is your judgment based on how well you know your team. This can be a big edge when you are partial to a few teams and familiar with their tendencies to perform well in certain matchups. Other factors such as home field, coming off a bad loss and responding to adversity help you decide.
Your sports betting picks can be a grind it out mentality, but exchanging profits and losses is a fine edge to positive gains. Fine tune that edge for larger bets when your focus reaches beyond the exchange of profits and losses and comes out on top.