How Your NFL Picks Overlook these Tilted Numbers
Picking the NFL favorites is what the general betting public does about 60% of the time. NFL betting on games is usually a two choice option. The NFL betting public loves the favorite playing at home. The idea of betting the underdog is a psychological stigma for the amateur bettor. They perceive a dog team to be inferior to the favorite because the books put their number (line or spread) that says this is gospel. That mental block against the dog is what separates long term losers from winners.
The underdog bet can be a great value bet and just as good as the favorite choice. The favorite choice has to win the game first. Then they have to win by more than the point spread to cover the bet. How many of your NFL picks lose as the favorite. The underdog can lose the game and still cover the spread, especially if the numbers are tilted toward the underdog. Many bettors overlook these tilted numbers when making their NFL picks. Betting NFL favorites can be costly if the numbers are a little more padded or tilted against a public team favorite. Some spreads are right in line while others are tilted or shaded in a bias direction. How to filter out tilted lines is part of the handicapping procedures for success.
The so called backdoor cover
Underdogs can also score some meaningless points at the end of the game to cover the spread — often referred to in betting parlance as a “backdoor” cover.
An underdog bettor has a live wager until the final game results . You have to do your homework to recognize when a dog is not worth it or there is no underlining value with a possible upset and a close game within the line. How to bet and pick NFL games comes down to the favorite or underdog – lay the points or take the points. There is one reliable statistic that makes betting the NFL a little more profitable when the favorite versus the dog is tilted too much in either direction.
By the end of the season, the favorites and dogs are about 50/50 covering the spread. After 4 weeks the dogs are leading the favorites by 32 covers to 27 with a few pushes. The totals are 36 overs and 25 unders. You can see the overlay of the dog to favorite ratio is tilted toward the dog by a nice profitable margin. Dog bettors are cashing in early in the season but the favorites will close the gap.
However, these stats will get tilted in favor of the dogs or favorites and the over or under. When a dog or favorite has won (covered) 8+ or more covers after so many weeks, the numbers will shift back to almost 50/50. You will see this happen when the dog or favorite will cover 10 + games on that week`s card. When you see the imbalance (tilted) bet the other way to meet that adjustment. The same with the totals.
The imbalance or tilt may grow slowly over the season. Usually around weeks 10,11 and 12 the tilt will be 8+ covers either way. A parlay card at this time may prove profitable if you have a few extra bucks to speculate. Go with 4 to 6 picks on all dogs or favorites according to the adjustment strategy. The same with the totals or a combination.
Betting NFL games is full of angles, systems and betting trends. Don`t overload with too many stats and lose your focus on the overall direction of the game or obsess over the point spread. Sometimes the spread is just a number to put you off guard and create doubt. How to bet on NFL games is a cool decision making process. Use what you think is a relevant strategy, be selective and wait your spot.
Patience is waiting for the right time to connect and doubt is your hidden enemy
Waiting for the right time to find a tilted situation in your favor can take some weeks of limping along until your NFL picks fall into place. You can find these slots when favorites win easily against the spread or underdogs are poised for a competitive game. Getting points is a distinct advantage unless a 10 point dog is over-matched by the favorite playing up to or above their potential.
Basic sports betting behavior follows a consistent path for your betting strategy. If you want to keep your sanity from the numerous head games that betting on sports can provide, you need to balance your wins and losses. You cannot bounce around your wagers from all the different bets available. If you want to become a successful player in the billion-dollar-a-year sports gambling industry, you need a disciplined mentality and a little luck along the journey. It can become the road to nowhere without an iron stomach and a separate bank roll to foster the peaks and valleys. Most teams have a pattern of behavior that becomes a winning trend. You can almost predict how certain teams will play after a bad loss or a dis-jointed effort. The NE Patriots crushed the Miami Dolphins after losing two in a row. The GB Packers stopped any hopes of the lowly Bills with a shutout after losing the previous week.
Some of these patterns last for years and some fade away. NFL betting trends come from different angles over the years or from a whole new seasonal surprise. It could be a new coaching staff turning teams around or a few outstanding rookie players or a gifted quarterback leading his team to winning and covering. Look what Pat Mahomes is doing for the KC Chiefs.
How do you find ways to “even the odds” in your betting process. Is your personality equipped to enter a field of uncertainty to discover your odds of beating the number over the long run is not an easy task. The one proven way to win consistently is to stay on course with your strategy of betting certain teams you follow. You have to know the sport you are betting on and you have to select those games where the odds are in your favor. The books numbers cannot be on the mark all the time. Mistakes are made and you need to see the gap and seize the opportunity to profit from those mistakes when they coincide with your strategy.
There are ways to increase your chances to win more than you lose.
The biggest problem for most gamblers is chasing after winners when you are having a losing day. You need to step away and limit your losses without chasing late bets trying to recoup your early losses. How many times have you lost on earlier NFL games and then made it worse by betting a couple of late games without much discipline and lose more money.
There is no need to chase bad bets with bad decisions. Losses are inevitable. It is how you limit your losses and not fall into a trap. Pick the games you are going to bet ahead of time. Do not compound your problems by trying to win it back by betting on a game outside your betting pattern. This is hard to follow if you want to win consistently but you need to balance your winners and losers.
If you look at the point spreads in the morning and nothing appeals to you, pass on the early games and see what happens. Oddsmakers are good at what they do. Having patience is waiting for your spot. Some games just appeal to your instincts and you will feel it. Trust your confidence in a game you like and take a stance. You need a belief system to use when you are focused on betting.
You have to remain unbiased and objective in every way. You can have a few teams you like more than others. You can pick your spots to bet on those teams or bet against them. Is your judgment based on how well you know your team. This can be a big edge when you are partial to a few teams and familiar with their tendencies to perform well in certain matchups. Other factors as home field, coming off a bad loss and responding to adversity becomes a part of team chemistry. A team can develop a pattern of behavior beneath their playing ability. How they respond to adversity or rebound from a bad loss is part of their persona and is a valuable NFL betting trend to use at the right time.
Where does the NCAAF fit in to all of this. The NCAAF and the NFL are very different betting options. Your NCAAF picks have a wider variety of games with more opportunity to find mis-matches on the spreads and totals. You really can`t find tilted numbers on dogs and favorites in the NCAA schedule. Too many conferences and off beat matches.
NFL betting is more difficult with fewer games and sharper numbers. College and pro ball are the best a weekend has to offer. There are betting opportunities on both NCAAF games and the NFL. Find your preference at what you know best and know what to eliminate.