How to Evaluate Your Early Season NBA Betting Picks
How to evaluate the NBA betting opportunities is a difficult task right in the middle of the NFL season. But the league is underway with all the variables to consider. Some teams do not jell right away while others have surprises early in the season. NBA betting picks are risky and can impact your NFL or NCAAF profits.
The selection process
How do you jump back and forth between NFL, NCAAF and NBA. It has more data to decipher and more games to handicap. I think the preference for college and pro football is a greater source of comfort in your selection process. When you are half-way through the NFL season, you have more betting knowledge on each team and how they performed up till now. This NFL process of evaluation has provided you with a vantage point to gauge a team`s value and find your best NFL or NCAAF picks.
The only yardstick to measure the NBA teams is based on the previous year. You know the hyped up NBA teams like the Warriors will continue to win from last years exploits but at what over-valued price will you have to pay. The NBA game is fast paced and points don`t mean much until the forth quarter. Betting the NBA is a roller coaster ride with some teams when players have hot and cold streaks.
The skilled bettor knows how to wait on a young season and not get overwhelmed by too many available bets. They ask themselves why jump into the NBA so early in the season. If the NFL and college football are your strong points, stay the course. If you are an exclusive NBA bettor then your work is ahead of you. Who passes on the NFL waiting for the NBA to begin. But there are those who specialize in one sport. I think the NFL and college football is not as difficult as the NBA to evaluate and bet.
If I am up 20 points in an NFL game, I feel much more comfortable than up 20 points in the NBA. I do not sweat the last five minutes of an NFL running game to eat the clock but the NBA can go down to a few seconds for a win or loss. Of course the missed foul shots at the end gives you ulcers. Welcome to a game of twists and turns to wring you out. No lead is safe and the action is non-stop. But the very best talented players rise up to the challenge and keep their team on a winning course. The talent expands each year with new players making a difference. So few people have success betting on basketball. You are betting on the best athletes of any sport and it shows on the court. The NCAA basketball season is quite different than the NBA and skilled bettors will focus on the college game with good results.
Where do the value bets exist
Any detailed evaluation is a study project of percentages and numbers. A percentage for field goals, 3 pointers, free throws and others change after every game. There are separate stats for team percentages and players performance. Figure in the average number of turnovers per game and the ratio of points off turnovers. Is that another statistic to be added to the NBA data base. I have not seen that one yet. Points off turnover ratio (POTR). If Pistons score 20 points off Lakers 14 turnovers, the ratio is 20 points divided by 14 turnovers equals 1.42. The higher the ratio the more points a team gives up off their turnovers. Just something I made up to show how detailed information can expand beyond your horizon. To narrow down this percentage overload, NBA bettors need to combine those stats they deem necessary.
Some of the heavy hitters just track a specific type of bet like the over/under total. The totals bet is a solid bet for the skilled bettor. Even at the end of a game, teams with big leads just dribble out the last 24 seconds while the other team watches. That helps a lot if your under bet is close to going over but no attempt at scoring is done. Just like the quarterback in football who takes a knee three times while clock runs out — game over and you etched out a close win.
Bettors like the NBA despite the risk and major scoring throughout the game. Teams can look great one night and lousy the next night. Bettors like the action with games every night. A long 82 game season is hard on a player`s body and a team`s performance. Teams have an up and down performance during seasonal play with back to back games and long road trips. Bettors have an advantage or edge when they correctly judge a tired team or a key player lacking the stamina to play at their best.
NBA betting at your own risk
There are many variables in the NBA game to consider. Home court advantage is the first handicapping step. How many points is the home team worth in a particular match up between certain teams. Who has the edge and by how many points. NBA bettors look hard at the totals bet as a real strategy. They dismiss picking a team versus team point spread match up. Over or under is a popular bet for bettors who feel the teams playing have the style of play to produce points or low scoring defensive game. Smart bettors will track shooting percentages to analyze the total number. It is not about which team wins but the total score. Their only fear is overtime if they have bet the under.
NBA betting is a fast track meet. A lot of movement and scoring opportunities. Leads can change quickly and the scoring differences in each quarter are not consistent. A 20 point lead can evaporate in the third or fourth quarter to give you ulcers. This volatility is part of the game. Key players get hot or cold and defensive schemes cause teams to lose their focus from the first half. A 38 point scoring quarter can drop to 18 points drought in the fourth quarter with the game on the line. Very unpredictable for bettors to calculate whether their bet is a winner or loser. This wait and see battle down to the wire happens more in basketball due to the 3-point shot and fast break dunks.
An NBA bettor can usually speculate with some degree of certainty on his total bet by the middle of the third quarter score. He knows his under or over bet looks good if teams do not have a complete breakdown in the fourth quarter. But teams go into a scoring funk and score only 14 points in the final quarter. This kills your over bet by a few points under the total. Another killer scenario happens when your under bet looks great until a final spurt of scoring causes overtime and your bet goes from winner to loser.
Betting on basketball has its share of easy winners and can be profitable with a very disciplined selection process. You do not have to be concerned about weather changes or the basketball taking a funny bounce like a football. Turnovers are part of the game along with steals and blocks. A turnover in football can be a game changer but not in basketball. Turnover average is 10 plus per game by each team. Time of possession in basketball is under the 24 second play clock. There are some NBA betting systems that are productive but with no consistent winning formula throughout the season. Just more homework to find some edge.
Are totals and teasers worth it
A good way to bet the over on NBA games starts with scoring potential and 3-point shooters. If they play below average defense but can put up points, the over bet comes into play. Certain teams in the NBA are known for scoring, shooting more 3-pointers and drawing the fouls. A 6 – point teaser to raise or lower totals is only a very slight advantage and not worth the extra juice. Points are plentiful in the NBA with the time clock and foul shooting.
Season scoring averages are a good handicapping tool, but following a team’s current form will give you an edge when the right teams are playing each other. Even the worst teams will play through cycles where their scoring average is above their norm while playing much better on the defensive end. NBA betting trends come and go as the season grinds on, but watching a team’s current playing form is a value edge that can lead to a winning streak on the totals line that last several games.
Some statistics reveal better information than the standard points for and points allowed. The offensive and defensive efficiency measures how many points a team scores or allows (defense) per 100 possessions. These stats show a team’s overall pace and dictates how many possessions a team averages per game. A team’s offensive efficiency and style of play can be a good indicator of how many points it may score against their opponent’s defensive efficiency. Trying to nail down these predictors to an exact science or close enough is the ultimate insiders guide to NBA riches.
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