How NFL Teaser Picks Lose to Underdog Upsets
Three weeks of the NFL season and the surprises continue to mount. Bettors undervalue teams when betting on teasers. The early NFL season upsets happen until week 5 when the league settles into a more predictable pattern. How bettors are losing their teaser picks to underdog upset wins happens mostly in the first four games of the NFL season. Week three underdog upsets were the Lions over the Pats, Redskins over the Packers, Titans over the Jags, Giants over the Texans and the unbelievable Bills over the Vikes. The old NFL cliche “On any given Sunday” is alive and well after many years.
The Vegas sportsbooks are not pleased with the 6-point NFL teasers. What the sportsbooks hate is the “between cover” when a teaser has both sides covering in the same game. Most books have pushed the 6 point teaser to a 6.5 point teaser minimum with -120 money odds. The 6-point teaser is a very popular and profitable bet but not early in the season.
Casino sportsbooks will probably take notice from their data that the vig has to be adjusted up to compensate for this betting option. Somebody has to pay for the value of a 6-point swing option and the effect it has on the book`s bottom line. They will eventually list a -125 to -135 on a teaser depending on the matchup and spread. Buying an obvious winner down from -7 to -1 is all too common. Even laying the -120 seemed like a gift to bettors who would buy down to -1 or up to +13 and cover either way. However, the early season surprise upsets are beating the most popular teaser bets when all you need is a victory by buying down the points. The NE Pats playing at Detroit was a strong teaser bet with the Pats at -1. They lost 26 to 10 to the Lions —- another early season upset.
These early season upsets usually happen every NFL season within the first 4 to 5 weeks. When a teaser bet looks like a sure thing, you never realize the upset potential when a top team is playing at home. Most teaser bettors want to play it safe and buy down to a -1 or plus a few points to gain a perceived advantage. Surprise upsets in early season teasers are unpredictable and should be avoided until after week 5 when upsets are not common. NFL early season betting is a good NFL betting trend for underdogs and upset potential with favorable moneylines.
This does have some variation issues and the exact statistics will show some win ratios to fit the matchups. There is an NFL trend for this so called “sucker bet”. Teams play harder on the road than they do at home. Home teams want to use and manage the clock but on the road they want the extra possession. This helps when deciding which teams to put in a teaser. Teaser betting often wins in streaks.
When teams playing at home as a 5 to 7 point favorite win the game at a 75% rate for some weeks in a row, the teaser is usually covering.
When buying down good teams at home, upsets do happen and your teaser loses. Bettors just need a win to cover their teaser. An upset is part of the game and causes many losing teasers. If you tease an early game with a late game, winning the first leg of your teaser helps you to minimize risk by using a hedge bet for the second leg of your teaser. Usually this involves betting the opposite of your second leg teaser. You can win your teaser and win your dog bet with the points. A very good scenario for bettors winning both ways.
Sportsbooks will shade a line 1/2 point and give you better money odds. If the teaser favorite goes from 8.5 points to 9 you now have to lay 3 points (9 minus 6) instead of 2.5 points. Do not lay that extra 1/2 to save a few bucks on the juice. You want to tease a team without laying the 3 to 5 points. Always look at the option of adding some inflated points to the dog in a teaser. Your NFL pick options are part of the NFL betting process and needs your close attention. Ask yourself the question which way do I tease —- the favorite or the dog ?
Why teasers are connected to public teams
There are NFL teams the public loves to bet on more than other teams. They hold the public interest from their history and success from years past. Those are called public teams, and they get bet down with a blind eye at an inflated price. Those teams are expected to win every season with or without talent. The Dallas Cowboys are often referred to as “Americas team” and the public loves to bet on them. Teasers are usually connected with these teams when you can buy down to -1 or pick-em. Last year, the Cowboys emerged as the team to beat with their winning effort. Some teams get off to a strong start and then falter because they are playing above their expectations. But eventually, the teams can’t live up to the hype and they level off after the first month is over.
NFL teaser picks are more predictable after the season is 5 or 6 weeks old. It is important to get an accurate handle if a team is playing to their potential – not how the media is reporting on them. Are they losing games they should win with poor execution and lackluster effort. If they are playing well it could be strength of schedule or some bad breaks at key points in the game. Have they been losing by a lot or are they just losing by a few points. It could be one particular problem on special teams or defensive lapses. Great coaching and team chemistry will help teams overcome early sloppy play with winning execution.
What teams have they played
A weak or strong schedule shows why a team`s won lost record is deceiving. Have they played down to a weaker team with sloppy play mistakes and losing their composure. Perhaps they are getting by but not covering the spread as a favorite. Early losses in a schedule against top teams are expected but if their play was inspired and a last quarter fumble caused their loss, it should be noted. Wins and losses come and go but a schedule is your best road map to what direction your bets should ride. When to use a teaser pick can be a value bet when the schedule spot is favorable.
Sometimes there will be an obvious reason for the early struggles.You need time to look past the hype and surface stories and learn what is happening on the field. Have they added new players in key positions that have not yet adapted. Has a key player been missing because of injury. Has a significant change in scheme or philosophy happened that has taken some time to work properly. If you can identify an obvious excuse for the struggles to date then you can have a better sense of whether those struggles are likely to continue. Once the excuses are no longer present you might reasonably expect the results to be different.
How is their public perception
Have their fans remained loyal despite their struggles or have they voiced their displeasure against the team. Fans can be very fickle and become distant and discouraged until they see a resurgence. The fans can be especially fickle about their team`s performance if the team played poorly in the beginning but recovered with success on the field.
When the fans turn against their team, there can be some value when the team is ready to respond and overcome their public perception of weakness. How many betting lines are inflated due to the betting public and how they feel about a team. Most amateur bettors have an emotional attachment to some teams which clouds their judgement. A lot of successful bettors are called “contrary bettors” because they bet against public perception and the inflated spreads that are part of this strategy and it works to a certain degree. Bettors need an angle and being attached to a public team is not one of them. Put your emotions aside or stop betting until you do.
Early upsets are why teasers lose when favorites look like a sure thing to just win or cover 2 or 3 points. A good teaser betting trend is to add points to the underdog. Early season betting can damage your bankroll with upsets, so play it safe with adding points to dogs in a teaser. As the season progresses after week 5, you can open up your betting strategy and see less major upsets. Teams will show their strength or weakness which is good information for bettors. How to measure the NFL schedule for a favorable spot is a key handicapping tool. Consistency will start to develop from those talented teams that will increase your bankroll whether in a teaser or straight up.
bfraser1011@gmail.com
