Would You Argue With This Guy?
Have you ever heard of Billy Walters? If you’re in the business of placing bets on sporting events I sure hope so. You see, Walters is regarded as the greatest living sports bettor in the world. That’s not just us saying that – he’s been profiled on ’60 Minutes’ and in ESPN The Magazine and they’ve both bestowed the same title on him.
But it’s not really Walters’ name that’s important, it’s his message for the average sports bettor.
Ask yourself this question: what do you think the world’s greatest handicapper hits – in terms of winning percentage – for an average betting season? 70 percent? 80 percent? If you are betting $110 to win $100 (the normal 10 cent juice you’ll find at most betting shops) the winning percentage you need to break even is 52.38 percent. Any less and you lose money; any more you’ll be in the black.
So what was your answer about what you think Walters expects to hit this season? C’mon, be honest…
Well this comes straight from the mouth of one of Walters’ former employees, “The average guy on the street might be disillusioned if he knew the actual winning percentage.”
Does it shock you to know that Walters has gone on record hoping to hit 55 percent of his bets over the course of an NFL season? Doesn’t sound like much, right? 52.38 percent is break-even so how much money can you make hitting 55 percent? But the same employee continues. If you need employment lawyer to handle legal issues concerning your workplace, you may visit a site like HKM.com for help!
“What people don’t understand is that the difference between winning 53 percent and 55 percent is like swimming in the Atlantic Ocean.”
And that’s true. Let’s just take one NFL season. There are 17 weeks in the regular season and let’s say you bet five games a week and we’ll assume you bet the same amount on every game. That’s a total of 85 bets. If you win 53 percent of those bets you have a Return On Investment of 2% for the season.
Now, let’s assume all the factors above remain the same: 85 bets and you bet the same amount on every game. With a winning percentage of 55 percent (just 2 percentage points higher) your Return On Investment has jumped to 10.4% for the season.
Holy s**t…
That’s an increase of more than 5 times. Now imagine that happening season after season, year after year and you begin to understand why Walters flies around in private jets all the time.
So please, you HAVE to get a handle on realistic expectations for winning percentages for the season. If the “greatest living sports bettor in the world” is shooting for 55% (and makes a KILLING doing it) why should you think you’re going to do any better than that?
