When a Books Number is Stuck and Vulnerable
How to Bet NFL Weak and Soft Totals
Most NFL bettors don`t realize how vulnerable and weak all books are to putting up a number that is stuck either way. Being stuck on a number is a big advantage for a smart bettor. The books post many numbers for you to decipher. They hope you do not decipher their weak numbers among their more accurate lines.
We all know the books can adjust their lines by a half point or more. That is done to balance an overload of bets going in the same direction. But what they cannot do is make a line that is too far below or too far above the average lines of the other books. Sure, there will be some small difference of a point or two between the books.
Have you ever seen NFL totals out of the standard range of their limits. When the book knows a defensive game is almost a guaranteed lock, they put their under number at 35 to 37. They know they are stuck on that number and will not go any lower. It is the same with all the books to stay within a point of each other so they will not “rock the boat”. It is almost like “price fixing” between businesses. Perhaps you could call it “collusion”.
Have you ever seen an NFL under 34 or 35 ? Just not done. That is their limit and they will not go lower even when a game is a certainty to go under 30 or even 27 or lower!
A perfect example from 9/18 was the LA Rams at home against Seattle. The under was 37 while all other games were in the 42 to 53 range. Two strong defenses but average offenses with not much of a passing game. Both teams were dominate upfront with talent and ability. Final score was 9 to 3 — all field goals.
So the books were stuck on 37 or 36 and knew they were vulnerable to the under if the smart bettors understood this weakness. The books hope they do not get hit too hard. There is nothing they can do about it since they are stuck on a number that is as low as they can go or will go. They know in advance that a particular game will be a loss for them unless the casual bettor plays into their hand.
The same scenario occurs with the over bet. Certain high octane offenses or lousy defensive teams will put up big numbers. Again, the books are limited as to how high they can go or will go. Usually the maximum high post is 56 to 58 points. Have you ever seen an NFL game posted at 60 + points? Not that I can remember.
A smart bettor will spot a high scoring game and bet over at 56. He is not deterred by this limited number because the upside has more room than the downside. Besides, the books are just about telling you (like a tell in poker) there will be a lot of scoring in this game. They know it and post a high number but it is their limit.
This limited or stuck number is usually prevalent with the totals. Not as much so on the game spread. The books put up a number and hope for a good number. Spotting a weak line is there every week. Even when a favorite is -6 points and they lose outright, how was the book so wrong.
Even a small loss from the vig or just breaking even is a good day to retreat. Looking ahead is the best thing about this industry. There are new opportunities waiting for you the next day or week to uncover and cash out. Best of luck.
