Using NFL Betting Trends for Profit
NFL betting trends are a good indicator to find a hidden weakness or a pattern of elevated performance. A good trend shows a direction in which a team or player is playing above expectations.
An early trend is usually not on the book`s radar until the first five weeks of the season.
An early trend this season is the quarterback play from the rookies. Trend bettors are cashing in on the surprising play of rookie quarterbacks in Denver (T. Siemian) and Philly (C Wentz). Apparently, it does not matter who is quarterback in New England. They know how to win and their success has been a long trend every season.
Denver and Philly knew something about their rookie quarterbacks no one else knew until now. Smart bettors saw an opportunity to go with these new unproven players. But the best trends are the ones that keep producing. Is three weeks a good indication of a winning trend or was it based on a week schedule to exploit — a trendy fluke. Not so in week three.
All three rookie quarterbacks faced a much better defense than their previous opponents. New England (J Brissett) shut out Houston as a one point favorite. Denver traveled to Cinncy as a three point dog and wins. Philly dominates the Steelers as a four point dog. The rookie quarterbacks played great as this trend is no fluke. Sure, teams defense was great but consistent quarterback play is crucial to the outcome of any game.
So far these trending quarterbacks have exceeded expectations and will probably continue. The book`s number will eventually catch up with certain trends that are underestimated. A smart bettor will cash in on a solid trend that stays the course.
Average bettors have a tendency to go against a trend they do not recognize as legitimate value and the edge you need.
Can these early trends extend beyond the first five weeks of the season ? Fads usually have short-term success but fade quickly. Smart bettors have to determine what trends will keep their luster and provide value over the long run.
There are many trends that have been created over the years but past results can be very outdated. Some of these popular trends include : teams coming off a bye week, home team dogs, losing as a favorite, east coast traveling to west coast, Monday night game trends and the list goes on. All this situational data is compared with the ubiquitous acronym ATS (against the spread). ATS is everywhere to back up a trend — good or bad.
Although some trends have become “legend” over time, staying focused on the current season is more promising than falling into a yesteryear trap. Only some teams can perform on a consistent level year in and year out.
Teams, players and coaches change each year but the great ones (NE, Pitt, GBay etc.) provide you with the best trend — Stability and Performance you can expect, win or lose.
The jury is still out on these new trending opportunities but it creates a new hope for the fans and the bettor. The competition for new talent is part of the NFL experience. The cool thing about new talent is not the big name or big college but the unknown small college player who gets drafted and takes your team to new heights. Like the “new kid on the block” who replenishes “out with the old, in with the new” —- as in Denver. The NFL needs this renewal to keep that competitive spirit people are attracted to.
Pick your trend wisely. Good luck!
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