Betting Beyond the NFL Spread
NFL statistics are numbers and parts of the betting selection process
Why do most sports bettors analyze games with so much information overload that they lose sight of the overall direction of the game? The parts that are constantly used to uncover some relevant edge are grouped into a statistical pool of numbers and percentages. It goes on and on with no linkage except to form a path of assumption.
When Team A is 8 wins and 3 losses ATS (against the spread) on regular grass, does that type of information have any relevance. Team B is 7 wins and 2 losses over last 3 years on games played in November. These past statistical facts are no indication of future results. These statistics can extend beyond the realm of sanity with no end in sight. Do not assume an outcome based on hard cold percentages. Numbers and statistics can be misleading with no parameters for success.
Certain statistics, numbers and percentages do play a role when their priority ranks higher than some useless information. There are more meaningful numbers such as offensive and defensive rankings. When Team A is 30th in the league in pass defense, that is a helpful stat to know. However, when you get bogged down by matchups and injuries or weak outdated statistics, you lose sight of how the game will be decided. Do not lose your focus with too much data injection. Tunnel vision down a one way street keeps you off balance in your decision making process. Once you become too subjective based on data overload leading you on, you lose your objective thought process to successful handicapping.
Your intuition can be a valuable tool when you learn to read the line that the book thinks is the right number. When you love a certain game at minus 3.5 points, let your intuition deal with your strong emotions or “impulsive selection”. When your intuition asks why only minus 3.5 points when you had it at 5 to 6 points, then the line is telling you something about the game. You can read into it and go against your first impulse or just pass. Sometimes the best bet is no bet. I find this especially true when betting the over and under. Your first impulse is strong on the over with two offensive teams that play a low scoring game. How many times has this happened to you? Learn to look the other way sometimes.
Remember you can’t win them all — you just need 53% and higher for a profit. Look beyond the spread and don`t become glued to a number. Sometimes the spread does not matter when the game is over — especially when a team dominates the outcome of the game. Visualize a team`s value in certain situational matchups and ignore the spread. Go with that crystal clear feeling of a teams overall power to perform. Can you focus on the old axiom of “reading between the lines” to see a clear direction for accurate results. Find your focal point and feel your instincts on how well a team can play up to their potential. You can mentally observe a winner and also know a loser when you feel it. Some teams just suck as the season moves ahead. It is up to you to separate the good from the bad or mediocre. The tell tale signs are there to find and exploit. Good luck.
