Underdog Betting Provides Value and Profit
The NFL season provides wagering opportunities where the underdog plays a major role. The dogs are a value and profitable bet if you are not locked in to betting favorites. A lot of amateur bettors are not comfortable betting underdogs and lose out on the value side of dog wagering. The NFL wagering menu has good value every week with taking the points.
Dogs will cash out about 50% of the time on average. Favorites will pay out the other 50% on average but you need to pick your spots.
- Betting the Home Underdog
Home underdog trends will vary from year to year in the NFL. If you look at the stats data over the past 25 years, there have been two constants in the NFL. Home underdogs cover the spread more often than not and the public almost always prefers betting road favorites.
The public likes backing road favorites is common, especially since ‘chalk’ players like to ride the NFL’s most popular teams at what they believe to be low odds. A typical excuse to bet the road favorite at -3 based on the low spread instead of other game variables.
However, home-field advantage remains an underrated aspect when wagering on NFL games. A team underdog at home means the road team is the better team overall heading into the game and the more preferable betting option, especially for those who already like picking favorites with no consideration for the home dog.
- Betting Value with Home Underdogs
The value with home underdogs requires more analysis when handicapping their games. There are situational and motivational betting angles that should always be considered to reach an informed decision.
Betting values do not always convert to a winning bet but can put your bet in a good position to cover the spread.
The New England Patriots were a 3 point underdog at home after they were destroyed by the Kansas City Chiefs the previous week on Monday Night Football. Bettors saw the Patriots defense give up over 40 points to KC and assumed the Patriots were slowing down. The following game at home they beat the Bengals easily as a 3 point underdog. This was a situational betting spot that does not happen to often in the NFL. When a decent high power ranking team is getting points at home it is a value play. Here are a couple additional betting scenarios to consider in favor of home underdogs . . .
- Playing Against a Division Rival
Familiarity breeds contempt when division rivals face each other in the NFL. Playing two times a year every season, division rivals tend to hate each other and play tough and physical games to bolster their divisional standings.
The intensity from a home crowd that also hates the opposing team is a motivating factor for the home team. Underdogs in division rivalries are a threat to pull off the outright upset or cover the spread regardless of the talent discrepancy between the two teams. This is especially true late in the season when the road favorite has something on the line and the home dog has the opportunity to play spoiler.
- Playing in Second Straight Home Game
Underdogs playing their second straight home game are generally more comfortable and focused than in their previous game. They had no hassles of traveling in nearly two weeks. They relaxed in their own homes, in their own beds, without the stresses of being on the road.
In a league where any team can win on any given day, sometimes how much energy a team has can be the deciding factor. These home dogs tend to be even more dangerous if they lost in front of their fans the week before. No team wants to be embarrassed in front of their home crowd twice in a row, especially in such a high-profile league.
No traveling hassles combined with added motivation makes the home team underdogs coming off of a home loss extremely dangerous when getting points.
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