Tilted Numbers NFL Bettors Overlook
Betting the NFL favorites is what the general betting public does about 60% of the time. How to bet on NFL games is usually a two choice option. The betting public loves the favorite playing at home. The idea of betting the underdog is a psychological stigma to the amateur bettor. They perceive a dog team to be inferior to the favorite because the books put their number (line or spread) that says this is gospel. That mental block against the dog is what separates long term winners from losers.
The underdog bet is a great value bet and just as good as the favorite choice. The favorite choice has to win the game first. Then they have to win by more than the point spread to cover the bet. How many favorites get beat outright or the upset happens on a big favorite. The underdog can lose the game and still cover the spread.
They can also score some meaningless points at the end of the game to cover the spread — often referred to in betting parlance as a “backdoor” cover.
An underdog bettor has a live wager until the final game results . You have to do your homework to feel when a dog is not worth it or there is underlining value with a possible upset or a close game within the line. How to bet NFL games comes down to the favorite or underdog – lay the points or take the points. There is one reliable statistic that makes betting the NFL a little more profitable when the favorite versus the dog is tilted too much in either direction.
Usually at the end of the season, the favorites and dogs are about 50/50 covering the spread. After 4 weeks the dogs are leading the favorites by 36 covers to 25 and the totals are 32 under and 28 over with 3 pushes. You can see the overlay of the dog to favorite ratio is tilted toward the dog by a nice profitable margin.
Dog bettors are cashing in early in the season but the favorites will close the gap.
However, these stats will get tilted in favor of the dogs or favorites and the over or under. When a dog or favorite has won (covered) 8+ or more covers after so many weeks, the numbers will shift back to almost 50/50. You will see this happen when the dog or favorite will cover 10 + games on that week`s card. When you see the imbalance (tilted) bet the other way to meet that adjustment. The same with the totals.
The imbalance or tilt may grow slowly over the season. Usually around weeks 10,11 and 12 the tilt will be 8+ covers either way. A parlay card at this time may prove profitable if you have a few extra bucks to speculate. Go with 4 to 6 picks on all dogs or favorites according to the adjustment strategy. The same with the totals or a combination. It already happened this season when the first 2 weeks were 20 under and 9 over. Week 3 adjusted and 11 games went over and 5 were under.
Betting the NFL games is full of angles and systems. Don`t overload with too many stats and lose your focus on the overall direction of the game or obsess over the point spread. Sometimes the spread is just a number to put you off guard and create doubt. How to bet on NFL games is a cool decision making process. Use what you think is a relevant strategy, be selective and wait your spot.
Patience is waiting your time to connect and doubt is your hidden enemy.