Should I Base My NFL Picks on these Rules
There are basic sports betting rules to follow if you want to keep your sanity that sports betting can provide. If you want to become a successful player in the sports gambling industry, you need a disciplined mentality. A little luck along the journey is your friend.
A hard road to follow
It can become the road to nowhere without an iron stomach and bank roll to survive the peaks and valleys. You can establish some cool headed strategy to deal with your emotional side of betting. Keeping your emotions in check is a basic rule of betting.
How do you find ways to even the odds in your betting process. Is your personality equipped to enter a field of uncertainty to discover your odds of beating the number over the long run. It depends on discipline, money management and sports betting IQ. You also need a good data base service with current statistics.
Winning more than losing
There is only one proven way to win consistently. You have to know the sport you are betting on and you have to select those games where the odds are in your favor. The books numbers cannot be on the mark all the time. Mistakes are made and you need to see the gap and seize the opportunity to profit from those mistakes.
There’s no magic formula and no insider secrets. But there are ways to increase your chances to win more than you lose.
Finding NFL betting trends, over-rated teams, weak lines and other betting advantages are key ingredients. You need support for your NFL picks or NCAAF picks. Sports betting is a decision making process based on variable factors.
Running scared is losing the race
The biggest problem for most gamblers is chasing after winners when you are having a losing day. You need to step away and limit your losses without chasing late bets to recoup your early losses. How many times have you lost on earlier NFL games and then betting a couple of late games and lose more money.
There is no need to chase bad bets with bad decisions. Losses are inevitable. It is how you limit your losses and not to fall into a trap. Pick the games you’re going to bet ahead of time. Don’t compound your problems by trying to double it or win it back. This is is a hard rule to follow but if you want to win consistently, you have to follow it.
The walk away rule also applies before the games as well. If you look at the point spreads in the morning and nothing appeals to you, don’t bet. Most oddsmakers are good at what they do. Having patience is waiting for your spot. Some games just appeal to your instincts and you will feel it. Trust your confidence in a game you like and take a stance.
How to stay unbiased
Do not bet on your favorite team. You have to remain unbiased and objective in every way. You can have a few teams you like more than others. However, you can pick your spot to bet on those teams or bet against them. Is your judgment based on how well you know your team.
This can be a big edge when you are partial to a few teams and familiar with their tendencies to perform well in certain matchups. Other factors as home field, coming off a bad loss and responding to adversity are relevant for success. There are NFL trends hidden in many aspects of the game. NFL betting requires your attention to details and to weed out the bad habits in the selection process.
There are NFL teams the public loves to bet on more than other teams. They hold the public`s interest from their history and success from years past. Those are called public teams, and they get bet down with a blind eye at an inflated price. Those teams are expected to win every season with or without talent. The Dallas Cowboys are often referred to as “Americas team” and the public loves to bet on them.
Have the Cowboys emerged as the team to beat with their winning effort. Some teams get off to a strong start and then falter because they are playing above their expectations. But eventually the teams can’t live up to the hype and they level off.
NFL betting factors to support your NFL picks
Are teams average or just unlucky. It is important to get an accurate handle if a team is playing to their potential. Are they losing games they should win with poor execution and lackluster effort. If they are playing well it could be strength of schedule or some bad breaks at key points in the game.
Have they been losing by a lot or are they just losing by a few points. It could be one particular problem on special teams or defensive lapses. What teams have they played against is a factor to compare their next opponent.
A weak or strong schedule shows why a team`s won lost record is deceiving. Have they played down to a weaker team with sloppy play mistakes and losing their composure. Perhaps they are getting by but not covering the spread as a favorite.
Early losses in a schedule against top teams is expected. If their play was inspired and a last quarter fumble caused their loss, it should be noted. Wins and losses come and go but a schedule is your best road map to what direction your bets should ride.
Reasons or excuses for losing
Sometimes there will be an obvious reason for the early struggles or at least a reason that is obvious. Look past the hype and surface stories and look at what is happening on the field. Have they added new players in key positions that have not yet adapted. Has a key player been missing because of injury or been playing hurt. Has a significant change in scheme or philosophy happened that has taken some time to work properly.
If you can identify an obvious excuse for the struggles to date then you can have a better sense if those struggles will continue. Once the excuses are no longer present you might reasonably expect the results to be different. Have their fans remained loyal despite their struggles or have they voiced their displeasure against the team.
Fans can be very fickle and become distant and discouraged until they see a resurgence. The fans can be fickle about their team`s performance if the team played poorly in the beginning but recovered with success on the field.
Waiting for a value bet
When the fans turn against their team, there can be some value when the team is ready to respond. They move on and overcome their public perception of weakness. How many betting lines are inflated due to the betting public and how they feel about a team.
Most amateur bettors have an emotional attachment to some teams which clouds their judgement. A lot of successful bettors are called “contrary bettors” because they bet against public perception.
Inflated spreads are a part of this strategy and it works to a certain degree. Bettors need an angle and being attached to a public team is not one of them. Put your emotions aside or stop betting until you do.
Control your off-shore accounts
The betting investment options on the internet – if it becomes legal – are numerous and sophisticated. The newest formats are the betting exchanges and spread betting in the UK where internet gambling is legal. These new betting formats have many angles to invest in and do provide an edge if you know what to look for. The off-shore gaming markets are the leaders for online betting.
When the regulatory cloud over this industry is removed, you will see investment vehicles similar to hedge funds and derivatives. The tax revenues could be in the millions if this market becomes regulated and legal.
For now, it seems Nevada still has a lock on this market with their sports betting apps. The demand and growth of the sports betting industry is a real trend. The legal Nevada sports books accept a small fraction of the worldwide betting handle.
Red tape and regulation
More time is needed to process legislation and most states need the tax revenue. The one major problem could be over regulation and stupid government rules. Too much red tape usually hinders any new legislation.
How to control your off-shore account is one rule you need to monitor always. Betting on the internet is fast and easy with profits or losses at your fingertips. Researching your NFL picks on the net is a great tool when you spend enough time to become successful.
But it is very easy to lose control and click on buttons that will drain your funded account. If your state passes sports betting with a downloadable application, then use it for convenience and safety.