Find Your Betting Edge for Profitable Long Term Gains
The fundamental challenge for serious bettors is to find a betting edge over the bookmaker, exchange or casino. Getting an edge is the job of a profitable bettor and you need to understand what this means.
Margins Between Success & Failure
There is a well-known denominator among sports bettors that the margin between success and failure is slim. In betting, the margin between making a profit or losing money is usually how well your perceived edge was a real advantage. The margin of success is the measuring value of the edge you found and how it supported the outcome of your wager.
And while margins are fundamental to making money, a large percentage of bettors are oblivious to their impact. Margins give bettors a better chance to win. How many points did your winning edge cover the spread or your margin of victory. Finding a defensive edge will determine how well to handicap the totals bet when the under is an edge compared to the total posted number.
Knowledge is Power
Once you understand margins, you have identified an advantage that a bookmaker holds over you. Now you need to find ways to counteract that edge. One way you can get a jump over a bookie is finding extra knowledge by using other data markets where you know more than the oddsmaker. Working with computer algorithms on websites with subscription services is an advanced betting tool at your disposal.
There is no magic bullet here. Bookmakers are experienced and have vast data at their disposal – but they have their weaknesses. They have their computer software to support their job of creating a betting market for the general betting public. This can be the books edge to produce numbers that are close to the final results. To offset this advantage, you need your own numbers to compare from your own database and find an edge.
Keeping Your Ears and Eyes Open
Knowledge is a necessary component but it does not guarantee success. If what you have found what is already common knowledge it will be built into the odds. Real value comes from information as close to the source as possible, your own handicapping skills. You have the final say in your wagering selections and not some machine. But using a simulating software database is the best way to keep up with the bookmaker and his use of knowledge via computer.
Speeding up the dissemination of information is now available through online tools and services. However, it’s equally accelerated the time it takes information to become common knowledge. It has also increased the amount of speculation and false assumptions.
Good examples of getting an edge through timely information can be identifying reliable Twitter feeds that might be leaking team formations, updated injury news or significant line moves. Following a credible source of information is a part of searching around the many football outlets for the best analysis. General public feeds like Twitter and other social media maybe too vague and suited for the general betting public. You need a more detailed review than just an overall summary.
Facts, figure and news form a good basis for analysis but you have to develop a mind-set that is insightful and able to “read between the lines”. Good information goes stale and misleading information leads you down a path of assumption that is off course. How to read the line is your biggest asset and the ability to be totally objective without bias.
Spreads and total will stick out as good selection when your mind-set has that decided edge you have been looking for.