Early NFL Season Surprises Beats Teaser Bets
Four weeks in to the NFL season and the surprises continue to mount. Bettors undervalue teams when betting on teasers. The early NFL season upsets happen until week 5 when the league settles into a more predictable pattern.
The Vegas sportsbooks are not pleased with the 6-point NFL teasers that more bettors are using. What the sportsbooks hate is the “between cover” when a teaser has both sides covering in the same game. Most books have pushed the 6 point teaser to a 6.5 point teaser minimum with -120 money odds. The 6-point teaser is a very popular and profitable bet but not early in the season.
Casino sportsbooks will probably take notice from their data that the vig has to be adjusted up to compensate for this betting option they are concerned about.
Somebody has to pay for the value of a 6-point swing option and the effect it has on the book`s bottom line. They will eventually list a -125 to -150 on a teaser depending on the matchup and spread. Buying an obvious winner down from -7 to -1 is all too common. Even laying the -120 seemed like a gift to bettors who would buy down to -1 or up to +13 and cover either way. However, the early season surprise upsets are beating the most popular teaser bets when all you need is a victory by buying down the points. The Dallas Cowboys playing at home against the LA Rams was a strong teaser bet with Dallas at pickem. They lost 35 to 30 to the Rams —- another early season upset. The same unlikely upset in a teaser was Buffalo Bills beating the Atlanta Falcons as an 8 point dog in Atlanta.
These early season upsets usually happen every NFL season within the first 4 to 5 weeks. When a teaser bet looks like a sure thing, you never realize the upset potential when a top team is playing at home. Most teaser bettors want to play it safe and buy down to a -1 or plus a few points to gain a perceived advantage. Surprise upsets in early season teasers are unpredictable and should be avoided until after week 5 when upsets are not common.
This does have some variation issues and the exact statistics will show some win ratios to fit the matchups. There is a trend in the NFL for this so called “sucker bet”. Teams play harder on the road than they do at home. Home teams want to use and manage the clock but on the road they want the extra possession. This helps when deciding which teams to put in a teaser. Teaser betting often wins in streaks.
When teams playing at home as a 5 to 7 point favorite win the game at a 75% rate for some weeks in a row, the teaser is usually covering.
When buying down good teams at home, upsets do happen and your teaser loses. Bettors just need a win to cover their teaser. An expected win at home for Dallas and Atlanta turned into bad losses. An upset is part of the game and causes many losing teasers. If you tease an early game with a late game, winning the first leg of your teaser helps you to minimize risk by using a hedge bet for the second leg of your teaser. Usually this involves betting the opposite of your second leg teaser. You win your teaser and win your dog bet with the points. A very good scenario for bettors winning both ways.
Sportsbooks will shade a line 1/2 point and give you better money odds. If the teaser favorite goes from 8.5 points to 9 you now have to lay 3 points (9 minus 6) instead of 2.5 points. Do not lay that extra 1/2 to save a few bucks on the juice. You want to tease a team without laying the 3 to 5 points. Always look at the option of adding some inflated points to the dog in a teaser.
To tease or not to tease is the question ? But which way do you tease — the favorite or the dog ?