Betting Trends to Follow for Profitable NFL Picks
NFL betting trends are a good indicator of a hidden team weakness or a pattern of elevated team performance. A good trend shows a direction in which a team or player is playing above expectations. Your NFL or NCAAF picks this season should be a disciplined approach to uncover that trend indicator for profitable picks. An early trend is usually not on the book`s radar until the first five weeks of the season.
An early trend this season is the quarterback play from the rookies. Trend bettors will cash in on the surprising play of rookie quarterbacks. This happened last year with the Philadelphia Eagles and C Wentz. Apparently, it does not matter who is quarterback in New England. They know how to win and their success has been a long trend every season.
Philly knew something about their rookie quarterback no one else knew until now. Smart bettors saw an opportunity to go with a new unproven player. But the best trends are the ones that keep producing. Is three weeks a good indication of a winning trend or was it based on a week schedule to exploit — a trendy fluke. Once a good database of information shows early possible trend results, NFL betting becomes a little more predictable.
Beware the top performing rookies
Last year (2017), three rookie quarterbacks faced a much better defense than their previous opponents. New England (J Brissett) shut out Houston as a one point favorite. Denver traveled to Cinncy as a three point dog and wins. Philly dominated the Steelers as a four point dog. The rookie quarterbacks played great as this trend is no fluke. Defenses were great but consistent quarterback play is crucial to the outcome of any game.
Trending quarterbacks can exceed expectations and will probably continue. The book`s number will eventually catch up with certain trends that are underestimated. A smart bettor will cash in on a solid trend that stays the course. Average bettors have a tendency to go against a trend they do not recognize as legitimate value and the edge you need. Can these early trends extend beyond the first five weeks of the season. Fads usually have short-term success but fade quickly. Smart bettors have to determine what trends will keep their luster and provide value over the long run.
There are many trends that have been created over the years but past results can be very outdated. Some of these popular trends include teams coming off a bye week, home team dogs, losing as a favorite, east coast traveling to west coast, Monday night game trends and the list goes on. All this situational data is compared with the ubiquitous acronym ATS (against the spread). ATS is everywhere to back up a trend — good or bad.
Although some trends have become “legend” over time, staying focused on the current season is more promising than falling into a yesteryear trap. Only some teams can perform on a consistent level year in and year out. Teams, players and coaches change each year but the great ones (NE, Pitt, GBay etc.) provide you with the best trend — stability and performance you can expect, win or lose.
The jury is still out on these new trending opportunities but it creates a new hope for the fans and the bettor. The competition for new talent is part of the NFL experience. The cool thing about new talent is not the big name or big college but the unknown small college player who gets drafted and takes your team to new heights. Like the “new kid on the block” who replenishes “out with the old, in with the new”. The NFL needs this renewal to keep that competitive spirit people are attracted to.
There are NFL teams the public loves to bet on more than other teams. They hold the publics interest from their history and success from years past. Those are called public teams, and they get bet down with a blind eye at an inflated price. Those teams are expected to win every season with or without talent. The Dallas Cowboys are often referred to as “Americas team” and the public loves to bet on them. This year the Cowboys have emerged as the team to beat with their winning effort. Some teams get off to a strong start and then falter because they are playing above their expectations. But eventually the teams can’t live up to the hype and they level off.
NFL betting factors to consider for a trend to develop
Are teams average or just unlucky. It is important to get an accurate handle if a team is playing to their potential – not how the media is reporting on them. Are they losing games they should win with poor execution and lackluster effort. If they are playing well it could be strength of schedule or some bad breaks at key points in the game. Have they been losing by a lot or are they just losing by a few points. It could be one particular problem on special teams or defensive lapses.
- What teams have they played – a weak or strong schedule shows why a team`s won lost record is deceiving. Have they played down to a weaker team with sloppy play mistakes and losing their composure. Perhaps they are getting by but not covering the spread as a favorite. Early losses in a schedule against top teams is expected but if their play was inspired and a last quarter fumble caused their loss it should be noted. Wins and losses come and go but a schedule is your best road map to what direction your bets should ride.
- Are there legitimate excuses – Sometimes there will be an obvious reason for the early struggles – or at least a reason that is obvious if you take the time to look past the hype and surface stories and look at what is happening on the field. Have they added new players in key positions that have not yet adapted? Has a key player been missing because of injury or been playing hurt? Has a significant change in scheme or philosophy happened that has taken some time to work properly? If you can identify an obvious excuse for the struggles to date then you can have a better sense of whether those struggles are likely to continue. Once the excuses are no longer present you might reasonably expect the results to be different.
- How is their public perception – Have their fans remained loyal despite their struggles or have they voiced their displeasure against the team? Fans can be very fickle and become distant and discouraged until they see a resurgence. The fans can be especially fickle about their team`s performance if the team played poorly in the beginning but recovered with success on the field.
When the fans turn against their team, there can be some value when the team is ready to respond and overcome their public perception of weakness. How many betting lines are inflated due to the betting public and how they feel about a team. Most amateur bettors have an emotional attachment to some teams which clouds their judgement. A lot of successful bettors are called “contrary bettors” because they bet against public perception and the inflated spreads that are part of this strategy and it works to a certain degree. Bettors need an angle and being attached to a public team is not one of them. Put your emotions aside or stop betting until you do.
When the numbers tilt in your favor
Looking for an edge for your NFL picks is an ongoing search for trends that can form anytime during the season. If you are having a losing season, continue to watch for betting opportunities. NFL betting trends will develop over time especially during weeks 10 to 12. If the favorites are covering more than 60 percent, look for underdog value as favorites and dogs will even out at 50/50 toward the end of season. Weeks 10 through 12 will show some major upsets. Getting +250 on money line bets is a value play.
Keeping a running total of the over/under bets that cover is how to find any imbalance by weeks 10, 11 and 12. When the overs are covering more than 60 or 70 percent by week 10, the under bets will cover on most games played on any of those weeks. The totals bet will even out around 50/50 by the end of season. When the sides or totals is tilted too much in favor of either one, a reverse trend will cover on which side or total is lagging way behind. You will see up to 10 of these lagging sides or totals cover the card on weeks 10 through 12. That is the time to play a parlay card even if do not use parlays. You can recoup early season losses with late season profitable NFL betting trends that are part of the game.