Is There a Weakness in the Sports Book Opening Line ?
The latest news from Las Vegas Sports Books operations is very gloomy.
Sports Book operators are reporting major losses from the college football championship and the NFL playoffs.
Their opening line on the Clemson/Alabama championship game was posted at -6.5 to – 7 points on the favorite Alabama. In hindsight, this was their first mistake as the betting buzz was on Clemson getting those points.
The books know the mystique of the undefeated Alabama and how the betting public will back Alabama laying a touchdown. The reality of the match up was better understood by the betting public than the sports books. Clemson beat down a very good Ohio State team 31 to 0 while Alabama beat Washington 24 to 7.
If the opening line started at 4 points, the books would have gotten more balance and could have adjusted quickly if too much Alabama money came in first.
But the opposite happened, hence their second mistake. By keeping the line at 6.5, the books did not adjust down quick enough as early Clemson money poured in on the generous spread and money line. Why did the spread not move down to 4.5 or 5 points to attract Bama money ?
The NFL playoffs just fell into a situation where the wild card weekend saw home team favorites go 4 – 0. After Saturday it was 6 – 0. The general betting public and the “sharps” felt the away dog was overdue and it was as the Packers and Steelers won outright on the road.
Vegas books are now posting opening lines for the AFC and NFC championship games without remorse from previous losses. But some books feel the New England Patriots are going to the Super Bowl as a “sure thing”. Is this another oversight on the opening line with the Patriots listed as a -6 point favorite to beat the formidable Pittsburgh Steelers.
Can the Vegas books find that equal balance from the betting public to avoid more losses from too much exposure on one side. The opening line will determine which team has the public support and what adjustment is needed to keep a balanced hand.
Are the oddsmakers too confident what is likely to happen. They speculate the Patriots will beat the Steelers by about 6 points and the Atlanta Falcons will defeat the Packers by 4 or 5 in a high-scoring game. At this level of play to a Super Bowl, home field will not be a factor and getting significant points is enticing to most bettors since the underdog can win the game in this quest for a ring.
One of the facts of handicapping is how difficult it is for a team to cover the spread every week because the books make adjustments the following week to compensate against any streak. Eventually, most teams will fall close to .500 against the spread for the season.
That makes this season more remarkable for the Patriots. The Patriots finished their season with a 13-3 record ATS (against the spread) earning hefty profits for those who bet them every week. That was the best record in the league for the number one seed in the AFC.
Is the Patriots opening line the correct number to balance the money on both sides ? Bettors are on a winning streak and the books cannot afford a soft opening line with the larger amounts of money bet on final playoff games leading to the Super Bowl.
