The Home Field Advantage: Keys to NFL Betting
Seattle ranks as the NFL team with the greatest home field advantage because of the impact the home crowd has on games. There’s a reason they’re called Seattle’s Twelfth Man.
It is no secret that home field advantage plays a major role in all forms of sport. Roaring stadiums do well to ignite a hometown team. In the NFL alone, when a team plays at home, they win 57.5% of their games by an average of 2.64 points. However, indiscriminately betting on the home team is no way to yield profits when betting against the spread (ATS). Since 2002, the overall ATS success for home teams has hovered around 49%.
In this article, we’ll look at some different factors regarding home field advantage, when to use it to your advantage, and with what teams.
Let’s begin with the teams who’ve boasted the best statistical home field advantage since the NFL expanded to a 32-team format in 2002.
Teams with the Highest Home Field Advantage
A team’s HFA is easily calculated by adding their point differential at home and away then subtracting the league HFA average of 2.64 from that sum.
The following are five teams with the best home field advantage as per that equation.
- Seattle Seahawks – CenturyLink Field – 7.3 HFA
- Arizona Cardinals – University of Phoenix Stadium – 7.2
- Baltimore Ravens – M&T Bank Stadium – 6.4
- San Francisco 49ers – Levi’s Stadium – 5.6
- Minnesota Vikings – U.S. Bank Stadium – 5.2
It should come as no surprise to see the Seahawks atop this list. After all, they’ve repeatedly set noise records at home games. It’s even been reported that Seattle’s Twelfth Man has created noticeable seismic activity in the Emerald City. Since the league expansion in ’02, the Seahawks are 62-41 at home, and 29-13 ATS at home since 2009, beating the spread by an average of over 5 points per game. But to what factors do the Seahawks, Cards, Ravens, Niners, and Vikings owe their apparent home field success?
Important HFA-Related Factors
Stadium Type and Location
One of the biggest factors to consider when explaining a team’s HFA rating is the nature of their stadium. An arena built to reverberate rather than absorb sound is far more likely to contribute to a team’s success at home. The NFL has a diverse array of indoor and outdoor venues and playing surfaces.
A side may be built to suit their home environment — such as cold weather teams like the Patriots and Steelers faring better in the frigid climes of New England, but this may lead to a disproportionate drop in performance on the road in less favorable conditions. For example, the Cardinals, Vikings, Lions, and Cowboys all play in domes. Unsurprisingly, these same teams tend to struggle more when playing in unfavorable conditions on the east coast.
Simply put, the factors that contribute to a team’s HFA success may be entirely absent from another depending on their stadium and geographical location.
Travel Considerations
As mentioned above, a team may struggle on the road while performing well at home. This is due, obviously, to a number of factors — among them, geographical location and climate. For example, when a west coast team travels to the east coast, they are flying through a range of time zones. If a game kicks off at the usual time (1 o’clock on the east coast), the west coast teams will still have a body clock of 10 am at kickoff. It’s been said that peak athletic performance happens around early to mid afternoon. So teams are likely to meet at very different points in their circadian rhythms.
But to what extent does this actually impact betting success?
Betting the east coast team hosting a west coast side in an early game no longer appears to be profitable. Since 2009, the east coast teams have only covered the spread 51% of the time, even with a decade high in 2010.
The Referees
This is a big one. Where weather and stadium play significant roles in a team’s performance home and away, officiating has a much more direct impact on the outcome of a game.
During the 2015 season, NFL refs threw an average of 7 penalty flags on the away team compared to 6.7 for the home teams.
It’s no surprise that a crowd of 70,000 angry, screaming people has the potential to sway even the most impartial judge. We’re only human. So it should also come as no surprise when an official gives more leeway to a home team. And thus, no surprise that the home team is playing with a slight advantage.
However, as with any betting strategy, these factors are not to be applied across the board. There is no universal handicap based on home field. Nonetheless, keeping these factors in mind will go a long way towards accurately tailoring handicaps for individual games. And remember those factors are subject to change with each team.
