Sports Books Dismiss NCAA Early Tournaments Seeds
I just wanted to share this article with you again since we’re not on the doorstep of March Madness. It’s from Bruce, one of our staff writers. Expect more interesting info and pointers from him especially during MLB season.
On Saturday February 11, the NCAA basketball selection committee released its current top 16 teams a month before the brackets are announced.
The NCAA selection committee top 16 early tournaments seeded listing was not a betting factor for the sports books to consider.
Vegas sports books were amused but paid no attention to the listing. It has no affect on the odds but was more for entertainment value to pump up the March tournament said one respected sports book operator.
This was a first time idea for the selection committee to show their support for the March tournament. It was nothing special for betting purposes but for exposure and pre-tournament hype.
“We have our own power rankings and we base our odds on those rankings and the money that we have already received during the course of the season” said Jay Kornegay, VP of the Westgate Super Book. “These rankings are so early that it is almost for entertainment purposes only”. “It is not influencing any changes in the odds” he went on to say.
Sports book operators are more in touch with the contending teams in the upcoming brackets. They are in the business of evaluating teams, players, coaches, match-ups and other factors before putting their number on the board.
The selection committee has their own help to determine seeds and locations. They are not concerned about a betting spread, moneyline or total points. The committee has a computer printout from software that compares teams, strength of schedule, injuries, won and lost record, conference record and other factors to pick the bracket placements. They know that in conference tournament winners get an automatic bid to play in the tournament. But there are still many teams to decide on and if they deserve a bid. These are so called “bubble teams” and some make it while others do not. There is some controversy as the process is not perfect but a hard determination of who qualifies.
The early top 16 seeds announced is an easy decision. These are not bubble teams or second tier but usually the ones who reach the final four.
But the beauty of college basketball is anyone of the top 16 seeds can be upset by an eight or ten seed when the tournament starts.
Duke was listed at number 16 in the committee rankings. They were the fourth seed in the mid-west region but are still one of the favorites to win it all at 8 to 1 odds. The committee ranks team off season results but the sports books are far less concerned and rightly so. They are able to dig deeper to find that spread balance and where the money will be bet. They need better information than just better seedings by supposed better teams.
“Duke has struggled for part of the season but a team like that has the capability of winning it all so not much adjustment is needed ” said Jay Kornegay of Westgate. UCLA was seeded at 15th but the books posted their odds at 7 to 1 which is second best.
The regional brackets are the key for the oddsmakers who estimate which top teams have a perceived easier route to the final four. Some regionals are more loaded with talent than others and more difficult to advance.
The odds and spreads are adjusted to the strength and weakness of each regional bracket.
