Record These Simple NFL Betting Statistics
Sports betting statistics are the revolving moving parts in a large competitive cycle of calculating performance and timely predictions. Stats can be the measuring stick to support your betting knowledge and success
Betting the NFL favorites is what the general betting public does about 60% of the time. How to bet on NFL games is usually a two choice option. The betting public loves the favorite playing at home. The idea of betting the underdog is a psychological stigma to the amateur bettor. They perceive a dog team to be inferior to the favorite because the books put their number (line or spread) that bettors follow.
That mental block against the dog is what separates long term winners from losers.
The underdog bet is just as good if not better than the favorite choice. The favorite choice has to win the game first. Then they have to win by more than the point spread to cover the bet. How many favorites get beat outright or the upset happens on a big favorite. The underdog can lose the game and still cover the spread if they keep it close. They can also score some meaningless points at the end of the game to cover the spread — often referred to in betting parlance as a “backdoor” cover.
So there are times, when as a dog bettor, you are not out of the final game results . You have to do your homework to feel when a dog is not worth it or there is underlining value with a possible upset or a close game within the line.
How to bet NFL games comes down to the favorite or underdog –lay the points or take the points. There are some simple reliable statistics that makes betting the NFL a little more profitable when the favorite versus the dog or the over/under totals are lopsided in either direction.
These uneven statistics are easy and simple to record each week. Most weeks they will balance out but eventually they become uneven and provide betting opportunities.
You can track these stats very easily yourself. Just notate on a paper ruled sheet from week 1 down to week 17. Make a column for each top heading — FAV — DOG — OVER — UNDER. After all game results, record the number of favorites and dogs that covered the spread. The same for overs and unders (totals). An example for week 1 was 6 favorites and 7 dogs with 2 pushes. Overs were 4 and unders were 10 with 1 push. Keep a weekly running total.
Usually at the end of the season, the favorites and dogs are about 50/50 covering the spread. Week 1 was an overlay with 10 unders dominating the final scores. Favorites were outnumbered by dogs 7 to 1 in the early games but recovered 5 to 0 in the late games and Monday night.
However, these stats will get tilted in favor of the dogs or favorites and the over or under. When a dog or favorite has won (covered) 8+ or more covers after so many weeks, odds are the tilt will shift back to almost 50/50. You will see this happen when the dog or favorite will cover 10 + games on that week`s card (already happened in week 1 with 10 unders). When you see the imbalance (tilted) bet the other way as the books will also make that adjustment. The same with the totals.
The imbalance or tilt may grow slowly over the season. Usually around weeks 10,11 and 12 the tilt will be 8+ covers either way. A parlay card at this time may prove profitable if you have a few extra bucks to speculate. Go with 4 to 6 picks on all dogs or favorites according to the adjustment strategy. The same with the totals or a combination.
Betting the NFL games is full of angles and systems. Don`t overload with too many stats and lose your focus on the overall direction of the game or obsess over the point spread.
How many times have you doubted laying 7 points on a team you felt strong about. Then you feel great when your team wins 31 to 10 and the spread was just a number to put you off guard. How to bet on NFL games is a cool decision making process. Use what you think is relevant, be selective and wait your spot. Patience is waiting your time to connect.
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