NFL Playoff Pressure on Vegas Oddsmakers
The pressure is on the Vegas odds-makers to create a spread number for the NFL playoffs and the college bowl mania. Being reliable for setting the betting lines used by most casino sports-books and others is a major responsibility.
Finding the best number for each game is the job of the Las Vegas Sports Consultants (LVSC), a group of skilled analytic men speculating from their resources about a team favorite and point spread and total points scored — like predicting future results.
Predicting the outcome of any game by placing a spread and total is how the sports betting industry thrives. These consultants are putting up a number that hangs on every bettor`s lips. They better be sharp or else their reputation suffers and the casinos sports-books lose money and they lose business.
LVSC is in the information business and clients call needing all types of information. Weather reports at game time, updated injury reports and other types of information for handicapping essentials.
Insiders will run their statistical analysis and try to get a feel especially for the big games and playoffs. Almost like a sixth sense of what the right number is until it feels like a good fit.
This good fit has been documented to be close to the final results about 70% of the time give or take 5%. They do post wrong favorites as upsets do happen, have blow out games where the spread is way off and the total number is way below or above their number but this prediction service is where millions of dollars are won or lost.
With numbers you can’t always tell. When a line holds steady, it usually means that the money being bet on the two sides is equal. When that happens, a casino is guaranteed commission of 4 1/2% no matter what the outcome. But a steady line can also show little action on both sides of the bet. Sometimes the number posted is so accurate or “sharp,” as they say in the business–that it causes smart bettors to pass on the game. But the square or amateur bettor will be determined to bet on their favorite team. Occasionally sports books will start a line half a point or even a point off the sharp number in order to increase interest.
What the sports books sweat over is a good line that continues to overload the betting action on one side and the adjusted number might be too late to stop the risk. This unbalanced situation leads frantic sports-book managers to call LVSC and complain to whoever answers the phone. “How could you give a number like that?” they complain loudly. However, the game might end very close to the spread posted on the opening line. That line created too much exposure for the sports books with the most of the public betting one way for some reason. The books really do not like the risk or exposure that creates a gambling risk. How ironic that sports books do not want to gamble and possibly lose — they just want a point spread that will get close to even action on both sides.
It is a live number and a moving target. Every point spread needs to provide some accurate measure of how two teams match-up in the eyes of public opinion the time it is posted. The final and most important issue of the odds-makers pressure is to limit a casinos exposure to losses or be close to any adjustment needed. It is not an exact science as a football takes a funny bounce sometimes and luck is needed. One insider at LVSC said we provide an accurate service most of the time but you need the sports betting Gods to stay out of any disasters. Stress and anxiety are the culprits you have to manage if you can stay in the middle of the lane without tilting in either direction.
