NFL Betting Strategy Results
NFL week 11 was a bonanza for the under total bettors who were aware of this tilt betting strategy. This was outlined in a previous blog on the SportsAnalyticsSimulator website. It was dated and written on 9/24/16 and explained this strategy. The title was called “Favorites versus Underdog Tilt”.
See link at : http://sportsanalyticssimulator.com/nfl-betting/favorite-versus-underdog-tilt/
The author wrote about keeping a running total each week of the favorites, underdogs, over and unders on a simple spread sheet column. Just the number of times each betting option has covered the spread.
When these numbers or ATS stats add up over the first ten weeks of play, an imbalance or tilt will usually happen either way. The tilt may favor the favorite or dog and the totals. Most NFL seasons these numbers usually wind up at about 50/50 at the end of the regular season. So when there is a large imbalance around weeks 11 or 12, the correction will tilt back to the middle ground.
The blog article mentions that a tilt correction towards either betting option usually shows up around weeks 11 or 12. NFL week 11 was a real example or proof this tilt in one direction will correct itself back closer to the 50/50 balance that happens each season.
Up to week 11 there was an extreme tilt in favor of the over bet. The first 10 weeks showed the over at 78 covers and the under at 55 covers with 3 pushes. The imbalance toward the over bet was good for the over bettors the first 10 weeks but the correction was due on week 11. It was a strong correction with 11 games going under and 3 games over.
This adjusted the under number to 66 for the year and 81 overs. There is still a gap of 15 games and the correction should continue. Expect more unders to cover the gap in the next couple of weeks. It should get closer to the 50/50 rate that happens toward the end of the season.
The same scenario occurs between the favorites versus dogs. There is a tilt towards the dogs after 11 weeks. The dog has covered 81 times and favorites is 71 with 6 pushes. The imbalance is evident with the dogs covering 10 more games than the favorites. Look for a tilt back to favorites in weeks 12 and 13. There is also a big upset this time of year. Will the lowly Browns finally get that much needed win with an upset or somebody else be the shocker ?
This betting strategy is a wait and see plan when the tilt occurs in either direction and the correction happens. Keeping this simple numbers chart at the beginning of each NFL season is an easy task. The chart can reveal some great betting opportunities in the third month of the season when the tilt is obvious. A betting edge is a very much needed advantage in that critical third month.
The proof of the under covering 11 times is not just coincidence. Covering 11 times to correct the large imbalance happened right on cue. If it did not happen on week 11 then it would have happened on week 12. But either way it is a betting opportunity to score on a parlay card or straight up on the under. This betting strategy should become a consistent habit to follow each season and take advantage of when the tilt is evident. Be diligent and luck will follow!!
