New NFL Betting Factors to Consider and Use Wisely
There are some new NFL betting factors to consider with parlays and teasers. Some sportsbooks recently decided to replace the 6 point teaser with the 6.5 point teaser laying -120. They like to shade their numbers with the extra half points and get more juice from the bettor. Parlays are receiving those shaded points — usually a half — which seems to benefit the bettor if he is adding points.
The books do not care which way you bet, they just want the extra vig for these exotic bets which the books love to accept.
Are your betting teams average or just unlucky is a betting factor to consider. It is important to get an accurate handle if a team is playing to their potential – not how the media is reporting on them. Are they losing games they should win with poor execution and lackluster effort. If they are playing well it could be strength of schedule or some bad breaks at key points in the game. Have they been losing by a lot or are they just losing by a few points. It could be one particular problem on special teams or defensive lapses.
Betting factors revolve around the scheduling cycle of home and road games. Measuring wins and losses with a detailed perspective is part of your handicapping skills. Comparing teams that have played a weak or strong schedule early in the season is deceiving. Have they played down to a weaker team with sloppy play mistakes and losing their composure.
Perhaps they are winning close games but not covering the spread as a favorite. Early losses in a schedule against top teams is expected but they played well and a last quarter fumble caused their loss it should be noted. Wins and losses come and go but a schedule is your best road map to what direction your bets should ride.
Are there legitimate excuses for your team losses or just early struggles that can be adjusted. If there is an obvious reason for the early struggles, take the time to look past the hype and decide if what is happening on the field is a future trend. Has a significant change in scheme or philosophy happened that has taken some time to work properly. If you can identify a trend developing you can have a better sense of whether those struggles are likely to continue and bet against them.
Once the excuses are no longer present you might reasonably expect the results to be different.
How is their public perception and support base. Just recently, a home team was booed at half-time for a poor showing. Have their fans remained loyal despite their struggles or have they voiced their displeasure against the team. Fans can be very fickle and become distant and discouraged until they see a resurgence. The fans can be especially fickle about their team`s performance if the team played poorly in the beginning but recovered with success on the field.
When the fans turn against their team, there can be some value when the team is ready to respond and overcome their public perception of weakness. How many betting lines are inflated due to the betting public and how they feel about a team. Most amateur bettors have an emotional attachment to some teams which clouds their judgement. A lot of successful bettors are called “contrary bettors” because they bet against public perception and the inflated spreads that are part of this strategy.
Bettors need an angle and being attached to a public team is not one of them. Put your emotions aside or stop betting until you do.
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