NBA Betting Evaluation
How to evaluate the NBA betting opportunities is a difficult task right in the middle of the NFL season. But the league is underway with all the variables to consider. Some teams do not jell right away while others have surprises early in the season.
How do you jump back and forth between NFL and NBA. It has more data to decipher and more games to handicap. I think the preference for college and pro football is a greater source of comfort in your selection process. When you are half-way through the NFL season, you have more betting knowledge on each team and how they performed up till now. This NFL process of evaluation has provided you with a vantage point to gauge a team`s value.
The only yardstick to measure the NBA teams is based on the previous year. You know the Cavs and LeBron will continue to win from last years exploits but at what over-valued price will you have to pay.
The skilled bettor knows how to wait on a young season and not get overwhelmed by too many available bets. They ask themselves why jump into the NBA so early in the season. If the NFL and college football are your strong points, stay the course.
If you are an exclusive NBA bettor then your work is ahead of you. I do not know who passes on the NFL waiting for the NBA to begin. But there are those who specialize in one sport. I think the NFL and college football is not as difficult as the NBA to evaluate and bet.
I know if I am up 20 points in an NFL game, I feel much more comfortable than up 20 points in the NBA. I do not sweat the last five minutes of an NFL running game to eat the clock but the NBA can go down to a few seconds for a win or loss. Of course the missed foul shots at the end gives you ulcers. Welcome to a game of twists and turns to wring you out. No lead is safe and the action is non-stop.
So few people have success betting on basketball. You are betting on the best athletes of any sport and it shows on the court.
Any detailed evaluation is a study project of percentages and numbers. A percentage for field goals, 3 pointers, free throws and others change after every game. There are separate stats for team percentages and players performance. Figure in the average number of turnovers per game and the ratio of points off turnovers. Is that another statistic to be added to the NBA data base. I have not seen that one yet ! Points off turnover ratio (POTR). If Pistons score 20 points off Lakers 14 turnovers, the ratio is 20 points divided by 14 turnovers equals 1.42. The higher the ratio the more points a team gives up off their turnovers. Just something I made up to show how detailed information can expand beyond your horizon.
To narrow down this percentage overload, NBA bettors need to combine those stats they deem necessary.
Some of the heavy hitters just track a specific type of bet like the over/under total. The totals bet is a solid bet for the skilled bettor. Even at the end of a game, teams with big leads just dribble out the last 24 seconds while the other team watches. That helps a lot if your under bet is close to going over but no attempt at scoring is done. Just like the quarterback in football who takes a knee three times while clock runs out — game over and you etched out a close win. Time is on your side !
