MLB Betting Tips and Trends
Many professional sports bettors say that baseball is a profitable sport to handicap. There are many games to bet each day with more of a selection process. Nevada sportsbooks know this and are happy to break even for the baseball season. MLB betting picks and trends rely on streaks and slumps. These betting trends are more common in baseball than other sports because of the long season. Teams and players cannot sustain consistency from a long hot summer of play and travel. Hot and cold streaks are part of the game.
Profits from these baseball tips are how to enjoy the long baseball season
Plan to sit back early in the season since there are many variables to consider. Good pitchers get off to slow starts and potent lineups do not produce runs as a team. Watch teams for a few weeks in April when betting opportunities reveal how the sports books are posting some great odds to wager on when high priced teams are in a slump.
Baseball is the best sport to win on the underdog. You are risking less to win more. Those high money lines on the favorites means you need more winners to get ahead. Look for team streaks that show winning or losing 4 to 7 games in a row. It happens a lot in baseball and underdogs are a big part of those streaks. The data base from MLB is a good source of how to uncover betting trends that shows a strong,average or weak team direction.
Betting on those top pitchers who lowered their ERA and WHIP from their previous game outing. You will probably see odds at -180 and up to -250 for a known top pitcher. The pitching advantage is definitely a plus and laying the larger moneyline for your MLB pick is sometimes necessary. However, you have to consider the pitcher from the opposing team and his previous game performance. All great pitchers will dominate a weaker lineup but only through 6 or 7 innings as a manager will go to his top bullpen closer. The only caveat is run support. Laying -180 on a great pitcher is acceptable but that pitcher needs run support from his team. You can lose those 2 to 1 or 3 to 2 games even when your pitcher was superb in a loss.
Your handicapping skill were correct but you lost the bet
Comparing teams is not just about pitching since every team has to start with their 4 or 5 pitcher rotation. You need to compare how do the starting players matchup against each other. With average pitching starting the game, look for offensive players to score and defensive errors to cause problems. Some smart bettors will just wait for the average pitchers to start every fourth game and bet the over runs.
Consider the ballpark as each park has certain quirts and dimensions. Some are known to favor hitters and others favor pitchers. Larger foul ground areas allow pitchers to get more foul ball outs while other parks have a location for winds blowing out and carries the fly balls out for homeruns. Coors field, home of the Colorado Rockies, is well known as a hitters park for its high altitude and wind that carries balls beyond the fences. Hitters friendly parks need to be considered for your totals pick if the starting pitching is a 4 or 5 starter. Be cautious of major team rivalries like the Red Sox and Yankees or the Giants and Dodgers. Here is where you look for value since these rivalries are more intense and competitive. You will get very good odds with the favorite or dog.
The best tip to winning on any sport is discipline. The biggest mistake most gamblers make is betting too many games. Do not get greedy after a winning streak and bet more money and more games. Wait for your selection spot. Baseball gives you a good view in a 3 or 4 game series set. You can afford to wait for that opening game results in a series. You do not have to bet the whole series. Do not chase your losses and look for team trends and streaks.
MLB run lines are a different betting format than the NFL, NBA and NCAA spread lines
While most bettors and fans are accustomed to seeing the point spread on the board, MLB odds are money lines, run lines and total run amount for over and under. Sports bettors use money lines rather than point spreads. Just picking the winner without the need to cover the spread is a basic money line bet with more money at risk when betting a baseball favorite. Laying -130 to -180 is a common money line bet in baseball. You can bet the money line in football and basketball under the same concept — just pick the winner. Money line juice can put a dent in your bank-roll chasing a losing streak.
Baseball has some betting patterns which develop over a long season. There are more winning and losing streaks every month by most teams. Weekend sweeps are very common when pitching rotation is in place. Baseball betting strategy has different angles based on dominant pitching (can be a big advantage), a hot hitting line-up, relief pitching and other patterns of play that produce winning streaks from 4 to 10 games on average. A distinctive strategy revolves around the +1.5 run line on the dog and –1.5 run line on favorite. Some bettors look beyond the money line and ask themselves if a match-up is going to be a one run game or a two run plus game.
One run games occur around 28% to 32% over the course of a season
A “middle run” strategy is a useful bet to cash in when taking the +1.5 runs on dog with money line on favorite. How many 5 to 4 run games or 4 to 3 run games occur on a daily games schedule. You have seen it many times when the home team is tied in the 9th inning and have the edge of batting last in bottom of inning. Tracking a team`s won/lost record with the final score will give you an indication when a one run game is overdue. Statistically, it happens every 3 out of 10 games played and can occur 3 or 4 times in a row.
A powerful adjustment to baseball betting picks is getting profitable value with laying the run line (–1.5) at plus money odds. Since one run games happen about 30% of the time, the other 70% is decided by 2 or more runs either way with team match-ups. The –1.5 run bet just needs to land on 2 or more runs and pays you more than you risk. Getting +120 up to +180 on average run line bets is a great value when there is no vig on the run line bet if you lose.
Before your MLB picks, decide on the run factor with either a one run game or a two plus run game. There are many times when a top pitcher is –220 on the money line but only +110 on the run line (–1.5 ). How many times do you see a top pitcher win a 5 to 1 run game or a 6 to 2 run game with a strong bull-pen closing out the last 3 innings. These situational match-ups occur when the opposing team is starting their 4 or 5 pitcher in rotation and your team has been scoring in bunches.
MLB parlay betting can provide bigger payouts
Parlays are often considered a suckers bet and only amateurs bet parlays. Filling out parlay cards with the hope of winning a 5 or 6 team parlay is a suckers bet. However, limiting a parlay with a 2 or 3 team combination can be a good hedge strategy. When you win the first part of your parlay, you have the option or hedge to the second part of your parlay that has not started yet. If the numbers are right, you can bet on the opposite side of your parlay bet and squeeze out a smaller profit or limit your losses.
In baseball, the most profitable parlay is using the run lines on an early game with a late game. Laying the -1.5 runs at +140 or +150 will be a nice payout if the second game wins. You can cover or hedge the second game if there are odds changes or a live betting opportunity happens during the second game. The run line occurs about 70% of all games played during the baseball season. Previous years stats show teams play about 50 one run games give or take 4 games either way, which is about 30% for one run games. Hedging parlays is a good strategy to lock in profits or control your perceived losses without to much damage. Laying the -1.5 runs on a two or 3 team parlay is not as risky as it seems. You should consider the alternate run line if available on the underdog. Baseball betting is a game of streaks and slumps. Pick your spot and monitor results for a profitable season.