Four Factors for NFL Betting
There are NFL teams the public loves to bet on more than other teams. They hold the publics interest from their history and success from years past. Those are called public teams, and they get bet down with a blind eye at an inflated price. Those teams are expected to win every season with or without talent. The Dallas Cowboys are often referred to as “Americas team” and the public loves to bet on them. This year the Cowboys have emerged as the team to beat with their winning effort. Some teams get off to a strong start and then falter because they are playing above their expectations. But eventually the teams can’t live up to the hype and they level off.
NFL betting factors to consider. Are teams average or just unlucky. It is important to get an accurate handle if a team is playing to their potential – not how the media is reporting on them. Are they losing games they should win with poor execution and lackluster effort. If they are playing well it could be strength of schedule or some bad breaks at key points in the game. Have they been losing by a lot or are they just losing by a few points. It could be one particular problem on special teams or defensive lapses.
What teams have they played – a weak or strong schedule shows why a team`s won lost record is deceiving. Have they played down to a weaker team with sloppy play mistakes and losing their composure. Perhaps they are getting by but not covering the spread as a favorite. Early losses in a schedule against top teams is expected but if their play was inspired and a last quarter fumble caused their loss it should be noted. Wins and losses come and go but a schedule is your best road map to what direction your bets should ride.
Are there legitimate excuses? – Sometimes there will be an obvious reason for the early struggles – or at least a reason that is obvious if you take the time to look past the hype and surface stories and look at what is happening on the field. Have they added new players in key positions that have not yet adapted? Has a key player been missing because of injury or been playing hurt? Has a significant change in scheme or philosophy happened that has taken some time to work properly? If you can identify an obvious excuse for the struggles to date then you can have a better sense of whether those struggles are likely to continue. Once the excuses are no longer present you might reasonably expect the results to be different.
How is their public perception? – Have their fans remained loyal despite their struggles or have they voiced their displeasure against the team? Fans can be very fickle and become distant and discouraged until they see a resurgence. The fans can be especially fickle about their team`s performance if the team played poorly in the beginning but recovered with success on the field.
When the fans turn against their team, there can be some value when the team is ready to respond and overcome their public perception of weakness. How many betting lines are inflated due to the betting public and how they feel about a team. Most amateur bettors have an emotional attachment to some teams which clouds their judgement. A lot of successful bettors are called “contrary bettors” because they bet against public perception and the inflated spreads that are part of this strategy and it works to a certain degree. Bettors need an angle and being attached to a public team is not one of them. Put your emotions aside or stop betting until you do.
