Can the Early 2017 NFL Season Overcome a Ratings Slump
The early NFL season has seemed on the verge of decline and early ad booked revenues are moving at a slow pace which indicates advertisers are spending less money on football viewers.
An early season ratings dip in 2016 convinced some media critics that the tipping point had finally arrived but the numbers recovered somewhat. Were people distracted by the political presidential race or were viewers just adjusting to the start of the season. Some worrisome vulnerabilities were exposed but an early downward trend was just a blip for the giant revenue machine that is the NFL.
However, the 2017 season will be a barometer of where the NFL mystic source of popularity is headed.
News last week that NFL’s up-front ad sales were at their weakest point since the economic downturn in 2008 is another cause for alarm. While advertising experts caution that such a development isn’t a downward trend for pro football, it does mean that if another year in which fan interest is slow to build through the season, it could be financially damaging to the NFL.
In 2017, the NFL won’t have the handy excuse of the election if fan interest falls off by 10 percent. The league is still going to make money this upcoming season because of existing television contracts in the billions. CBS, FOX, NBC and ESPN handed the NFL $5 billion alone for 2016.
Even with the 8 percent overall decline in ratings for the 2016 regular season, the NFL reportedly had a 3 percent increase in ad revenue over 2015. Perhaps that net profit is owed to the interest rebound late in the season, and advertisers are hesitant to commit money to ad spots now, when it’s hard to tell if the first half of the NFL regular season will remain a little soft or boring. The scheduled matchups will be a key indicator of the competitive nature of the NFL and the major upsets that happen in the first four weeks of NFL play.
However, a poor early start to the 2017 season could really harm broadcasters, which already operate at a loss broadcasting the NFL due to the immense cost for rights. Advertisers will spend once the fall arrives, but if ratings are down, the networks will have to settle for rates substantially lower than what they’ve expected.
Will it begin to spell the end for permanent growth for the NFL and finally lead broadcasters to question whether they’ll continue to pay any price for the chance to broadcast pro football.
There are other annual concerns for the NFL to deal with that affect ratings. Injuries are a constant in football, and at least one big-name quarterback goes down early in the season. Fans notice a drop-off in quality more quickly with quarterback play than any other position. There are gripes about games where both starting quarterbacks are sub-par and their backups are average to watch. Aaron Rodgers was a big question mark early last season with his bad reads and poor passing ratings. But the great ones get through a slump and prosper as Rodgers did to get to the playoffs.
All it takes is one or two of the better passers in the league to go down and drag down some of the league’s more enticing matchups. Aaron Rodgers or Tom Brady or Drew Brees are very much needed to impact the game and create the hype. Take any of them away for an extended period, and you’re talking about possibly ruining all-important prime time games or a presumed great Monday night football game between two of the best for big ratings.
The early 2017 season could be a ratings slump but NFL fans are everywhere and the pent up demand for football in September is a real emotional boost every fall season. If some great games happen in the first week, along with the college football adrenaline, ratings will not be a problem. Add in the betting prospects that are a huge ratings injection, and the fall football season will endure any perceived lack of interest that is usually a short blip on the radar screen.
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