Can I Avoid the Upsets of the NCAA March Madness Tournament

The Ides of March is a day on the early Roman calendar as 15March. It was an event of religious observance but became a famous and ominous date. Julius Caesar, the greatest Roman general, was assassinated in 44 BC. Caesar was warned by a false prophet to “beware the Ides of March”. Do you need to avoid the NCAA March madness euphoria with extra discipline when betting — I think so !

The same prophetic warning exists today on the NCAA college basketball tournament known as March Madness. The saying “beware those teams that come before you to stop your power to continue” is a stark reality. The NCAA tournament field is ready to play in a whirlwind of activity that puts great pressure on teams. Players and coaches must succeed to the next level or go home in tears.

The biggest word on the lips of fans is “upset”

There is a foreboding feeling of doom and gloom hanging in the wings before tip-off. No, it is not life or death as Caesar experienced but a warning for teams to bring their best stuff. Players feel the pain and the ending of all the hard work and sacrifice if they lose. Smaller teams will gain respect in a losing effort when they leave it all on the flour. Better teams need to find a way to win or face the unthinkable failure of being beat by the lesser team. Monumental upsets are a great part of this great tournament. Your NCAA betting picks are much more intense than the regular college basketball season.

One and done is the reality of your basketball life being terminated until next year or maybe forever. All the seeded teams are aware of the beginning madness of what it means to participate. Seasonal games and conference tournaments are very competitive and important but not on the level of March Madness. However, the March Madness tournament is the most bet of any other sporting event, even the Superbowl.

The tournament is scheduled at the best time of year for an exclusive showing above any competing sports. It is the king of amateur and professional sporting events. The NBA and NHL are in the final parts of their seasons before their playoffs begin. Major League Baseball opening day is a few weeks away and spring training is a spec on the sports scene. It is that time of year that captures the essence of college athletics.

A building climax of elimination

The tournament structure and format is a classic layer of anticipation and suspense. How these college players strive for the ultimate goal is an enduring example of purpose and hard work. Even in defeat, teams show an incredible desire to achieve above all else. Competition at its best with dramatic results that surpass all expectations — madness and mayhem personified. Betting profits and losses need to be spread out to continue on the roller coaster ride. Do not eliminate your bankroll in the early rounds. Be very selective with your bets. Some games are necessary to pass on and just observe for the next round if your team survives.

Each round of survival reaches an epic conclusion but still no ending in sight. Advancing to the next round is a relief but more pressure to come and possible elimination. Another battle full of stamina, strength and the will to win —– with a little luck in your corner.

Even the fans are exhausted from the excruciating play and wild ride down to the last few minutes and seconds. Those crazy back and forth buckets with under ten seconds left defy the odds. It just happens every year with different heroics that are beyond description. Simply amazing !

Are favorites overpriced

Big name schools like Duke or North Carolina with a rich tournament history are usually overpriced. Laying 18 to 22 points on these “padded” favorites is assuming  smaller name school has no chance. They probably have no chance to win but the 3-point shooter can bail out the underdog in the last few minutes. There are other variables like foul shooting percentage by the favorite and turnovers.

The real value bets are looking for those value added points given to a live dog that is ready to upset the favorite. A moneyline bet at +200 or more takes a leap of faith but the upsets are well documented. This betting tournament is like no other where bettors use an outside the box mentality to support their betting picks. Hunches and intuition play an important role than the standard betting mentality used during the regular season. Watching as many games as possible enables your power of observation. You can see what others miss which separates the winners from losers.

What factors do you consider in selecting your bracket teams to advance? Whether it is your office pool or an online bracket registration, looking ahead to possible match-ups is necessary. SpeculatIng on who will be eliminated is the science of bracketology.

Advancing to the next round is the key to staying in at least two regional bracket

Upset picks early is a boost to your chances and having more spots available to you in the second round. You will get lucky at times but a bracket strategy should be part of your selection process. A little research goes a long way with the following observations.

Take in to account those lower seeded teams who finished their season on a high note. Momentum and playing your best ball at the end of the regular season has a carry over effect in the tournament. Good performance down the stretch instills confidence and some strong vibes that teammates feed off each other.

If the carry over momentum from a season ending strong performance is evident, take chances and go with your gut instincts. You need a few upsets to move ahead but do not pick more than three in the first two rounds. Forget a 16 seed beating a one seed — has never happened.

Number two seed wins 95% in the first round. The rest in between seeds is where to research and find that upset.

Other factors to consider for your basketball betting strategy is how well a team played against top 20 teams. Strength of schedule can reveal a comparison of players and match-ups. Losing to a ranked team can be a good indication where a team fits in the overall basketball landscape. A strong showing in a loss can put an underrated team on the map. An impressive won/loss record is only as good as the strength of the opponent and can be misleading. A team can be overrated until they play stronger competition. A good performance in a loss or a solid win over ranked teams is the hint of a possible upset. An 11 seed over a 6 seed is a good spot for an upset.

Strength of schedule is part of your research but how well did your team played on the road. Playing away from home and traveling to the opponents home court is a difficult part of the game. Home court teams have a well known advantage. How your team performed in hostile territory makes them a stronger competitive team.

However, this is not the case since teams play on a neutral court site in four different regions around the country. Different locations requires most teams extensive travel to first round games. But some teams play close to home in the early rounds and are familiar with the away environment. How to handicap  those teams that played well on the road is an important factor to consider. Checking the away record indicates how well a team travels and how mature their psyche adjusts to their environment.

A neutral site for both teams is a level playing court and no obvious advantage for either team. But being on the road can favor those teams with a good away record from a long regular season. Now they play to advance and are mentally ready for any court in any place and no travel hangover.

A competitive journey to a magical destination

The trip to the final four or elite eight is a journey of desperation and a magic carpet ride. The elimination process of one and done is an end to a dream. The players and the fans face a mutual response of an emotional roller coaster. That is what makes this unique tournament a journey to remember. You can feel the competitive spirit coming through the screen as teams fight to survive. Bettors will have to endure this crazy atmosphere and be ready to accept the results. There are no betting trends to find an edge. Bet at your own risk and hope luck is on your side. The helter-skelter pace can wear down the best of you if you let it. Proceed with caution and enjoy the show.