Betting the NBA at Your Own Risk
Bettors like the NBA despite the risk and major scoring throughout the game. Teams can look great one night and lousy the next night. Bettors like the action with games every night. A long 82 game season is hard on a player`s body and a team`s performance. Betting the NBA at your own risk is difficult to handicap except for a mis-match.
Teams have an up and down performance during seasonal play with back to back games and long road trips. Bettors have an advantage when they correctly judge a tired team or a key player lacking the stamina to play hard.
NBA picks require sound skills and judgement
There are many variables in the NBA game to consider. Home court advantage is the first handicapping step. How many points is the home team worth in a particular match up between certain teams. Who has the edge and by how many points.
NBA bettors look hard at the totals bet as a real strategy. They dismiss picking a team versus team point spread match up. Over or under is a popular bet for bettors who feel the teams playing have the style of play to produce points or low scoring defensive game.
Smart bettors will track shooting percentages to analyze the total number. It is not about which team wins but the total score. Their only fear is overtime if they have bet the under.
Betting the NBA moveable parts
NBA betting is a fast track meet. A lot of movement and scoring opportunities. Leads can change at will and the scoring differences each quarter and half-times are not consistent. A 20 point lead can evaporate in the third or fourth quarter to give you ulcers. This volatility is part of the game.
Key players get hot or cold and defensive schemes cause teams to lose their focus from the first half. A 38 point scoring quarter can drop to 18 points drought in the fourth quarter with the game on the line. Much to unpredictable for bettors to calculate whether their bet is a winner or loser. This battle down to the wire happens more in basketball due to the 3-point shot and fast break dunks.
An NBA bettor can usually speculate with some degree of certainty on his total bet by the middle of the third quarter score. He knows his under or over bet looks good if teams do not have a complete breakdown in the fourth quarter.
NBA totals is a shooting percentage game
Can teams go into a scoring funk and score only 14 points in the final quarter. This kills your over bet by a few points under the total. Another killer scenario happens when your under bet looks great until a final spurt of scoring causes overtime. Your bet goes from winner to loser. Such is the betting risks of the NBA.
Betting on basketball has its share of easy winners and can be profitable with a very disciplined selection process. You do not have to be concerned about weather changes or the basketball taking a funny bounce like a football.
Turnovers are part of the game along with steals and blocks. A turnover in football can be a game changer. Not in basketball. Turnover average is 8 plus per game by each team. Points off turnovers is a deciding statistic leading to victory. Time of possession in basketball is under the 24 second play clock.
There are some NBA betting systems that are productive but there is no consistent winning formula throughout the season.
NBA betting evaluation
How to evaluate the NBA betting opportunities is a difficult task. But the league is underway with all the variables to consider. Some teams do not jell right away while others have surprises early in the season. The playoffs are very different than regular season.
How do you jump back and forth between NFL and NBA. It has more data to decipher and more games to handicap. I think the preference for college and pro football is a greater source of comfort in your selection process. When you are half-way through the NFL season, you have more betting knowledge on each team and how they performed.
This NFL process of evaluation has provided you with a vantage point to gauge a team`s value. The NBA evaluation point between the season and playoffs is very different than NFL. NBA teams will save their play energy for playoffs and take off some nights during the season.
Measure the results
The only yardstick to measure the NBA teams is based on the previous year. Previous year playoff teams usually make the playoffs the next year.
The skilled bettor knows how to wait on a young season and not get overwhelmed by too many available bets. They ask themselves why jump into the NBA so early in the season. If the NFL and college football are your strong points, stay the course.
If you are an exclusive NBA bettor then your work is ahead of you. I do not know who passes on the NFL waiting for the NBA to begin. But there are those who specialize in one sport. I think the NFL and college football is not as difficult as the NBA to evaluate and bet.
Where the differences begin
I know if I am up 20 points in an NFL game, I feel much more comfortable than up 20 points in the NBA. I do not sweat the last five minutes of an NFL running game to eat the clock. The NBA can go down to a few seconds for a win or loss. Of course the missed foul shots at the end gives you ulcers. Welcome to a game of twists and turns to wring you out. No lead is safe and the action is non-stop.
So few people have success betting on basketball. You are betting on the best athletes of any sport and it shows on the court.
Any detailed evaluation is a study project of percentages and numbers. A percentage for field goals, 3 pointers, free throws and others change after every game. There are separate stats for team percentages and players performance. Figure in the average number of turnovers per game and the ratio of points off turnovers. Is that another statistic to be added to the NBA data base.
Finding your own betting evaluation
I have not seen that one yet. Points off turnover ratio (POTR). If Pistons score 20 points off Lakers 14 turnovers, the ratio is 20 points divided by 14 turnovers equals 1.42. The higher the ratio the more points a team gives up off their turnovers. Just something I made up to show how detailed information can expand beyond your horizon.
To narrow down this percentage overload, NBA bettors need to combine those stats they deem necessary.
Some of the heavy hitters just track a specific type of bet like the over/under total. The totals bet is a solid bet for the skilled bettor. Even at the end of a game, teams with big leads just dribble out the last 24 seconds while the other team watches.
That helps a lot if your under bet is close to going over but no attempt at scoring is done. Just like the quarterback in football who takes a knee three times while clock runs out — game over and you etched out a close win. Time is on your side.
The risk reward ratio
NBA and NCAAB betting is a high risk low reward ratio. The pace and scoring opportunities are fast and nerve racking. You can find many betting opportunities during the regular pro and college basketball. NBA playoffs and college tournaments are betting challenges. You need to be more selective when betting these games.
Proceed at your own risk when betting basketball. It is a high risk and low reward wager. The action is great but your bet is always in jeopardy even when it looks good in first half. That is the nature of the game. Much more explosive than football or baseball.
There are solid total and sides bets during the regular season. Total betting depends on various factors as 3 point shooting and turnovers. You can find a 7 to 10 middle using live betting option during the game. When betting a total, always use the live betting option to hedge or leverage your bet during the game. Lock in a middle if available to reduce your risk. Losing a middle only cost you the vig. Take it every chance you get.
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