Betting Teasers Profits
The Vegas sportsbooks are not to pleased with the 6-point NFL teasers that more bettors are using. This past Thanksgiving weekend NFL game schedule was close to an even favorite to underdog ratio. What the sportsbooks hate is the “between cover” when a teaser has both sides covering in the same game. There were 6 games collecting on both sides with the 6 point swing.
It is becoming more apparent the 6-point teaser is a very popular and profitable bet. Casino sportsbooks will probably take notice from their data that the vig has to be adjusted up to compensate for this betting option they are concerned about.
Somebody has to pay for the value of a 6-point swing option and the effect it has on the book`s bottom line. They will eventually list a -125 to -150 on a teaser depending on the matchup and spread. Buying an obvious winner down from -7 to -1 is all too common. Even laying the -120 seemed like a gift to bettors who would buy down to -1 or up to +13 and cover either way.
Of course, this applies to a 2 game teaser or totals. If you are not getting at least +170 on a 3 game teaser, then pass or eliminate one team and drop back to a 2 game teaser. Value is the unseen variable in each bet that counts over a longer period of betting.
If you were to bet the road dogs and home favorites, your win rate would be profitable. Now this does have some variation issues, and the exact statistics will show some win ratios to fit the matchups, but there is a trend in the NFL for this so called “sucker bet”. Teams play harder on the road than they do at home. At home, teams want to use and manage the clock but on the road they want the extra possession. This helps when deciding which teams to put in a teaser.
Teaser betting often wins in streaks. When teams playing at home as a 5 to 7 point favorite win the game at a 75% rate for some weeks in a row, the teaser is usually covering.
When buying down the good teams at home, upsets do happen and your teaser loses. An example is the KC Chiefs loss at home to the Tampa Bay Bucs. Teaser bettors just needed a win to cover their teaser but KC lost outright at 19 to 17. An expected win at home for KC turned into an bad loss. An upset is part of the game and causes many losing teasers. If you tease an early game with a late game, then winning the first leg of your teaser help you to minimize risk by using a hedge bet for the second leg of your teaser if you are so inclined to do so. Usually this involves betting the opposite of your second leg teaser getting points straight up and hope your second team wins your teaser but does not cover. You win your teaser and win your dog bet with the points. A very good scenario for bettors winning both ways.
One more observation about how sportsbooks shade a line up 1/2 point and give you a better money vig. If the teaser favorite goes from say 8.5 points to 9 you now have to lay 3 points (9 minus 6) instead of 2.5 points. Do not lay that extra 1/2 if you do not need to save a few bucks on the juice. You want to tease a team without laying the 3 to 5 points. Always look at the option of adding some inflated points to the dog in a teaser. To tease or not to tease that is the question ? But which way do you tease — the favorite or the dog ? Lately both have been covering inside the 6 point swing.
