Bad Betting Habits to Avoid with Your MLB Picks
Bad betting habits are a losing proposition. They stick to your mental thought process and stay around to obscure your clear thinking. Keeping costly habits in perspective saves money. Your MLB, NFL, NBA and other sports betting picks should be based on betting trends. Basic betting rules are not guessing with your money at stake but staying disciplined.
Bad habits are made to be broken
“Old habits die hard” the saying goes — and how true with baseball betting systems.
Bad baseball habits used by amateur bettors makes it impossible to win on a consistent basis. They work sometimes in your favor but are not a standard handicapping tool.
Stop betting too many favorites. Getting stuck on the favorites is a typical bad betting habit. Betting MLB picks at -160 or -170 will deplete your bankroll over the long run. Eliminating this habit will save you a lot of juice on the moneyline. Losing baseball teams do win around 40% of their games over the long season. Top team favorites win about 60% of their games.
Baseball betting trends develop over the long season
Baseball is a game of streaks. The worst teams in the league do win 3 or 4 games in a row as a nice dog. One of the biggest habitual mistakes is playing the “due factor”. This habitual tendency is to bet against the winning streak to continue. Staying on a winning streak is the best way to insure profits. Bad teams can go two weeks winning 10 out of 12 games before they level off. Their record stays below a 500 winning percentage. This is a betting trend to follow for your MLB picks. There are more betting trends in MLB than other sports because of the long season.
When top teams lose 3 in a row, do not assume they are due to win their next game.
The common costly habit of betting the favorite starting pitching too many times will fluctuate back and forth. Wins and losses will cost you the moneyline juice on the favorite.
The exception is learning to bet the dog with good starting pitching or take the +1.5 runs with a close pitching match-up. The starting favorite pitcher usually goes 6 innings so you need to factor in the bullpen. Great pitching can dominate but still lose a close 2 to 1 game.
Past performances are not a steady trend
The costly habit bettors follow is the past reputation of an aging starting pitcher who lost some velocity. You need to eliminate last years performance and focus on his current form. If you have a big favorite who is struggling over his past few starts, pass on his next start. Another costly mistake is the attraction the public feels for the high scoring team with a potent lineup. A lot of public bettors assume that scoring runs from star hitters equals wins.
People love homers and runs batted in but it does work both ways. How many times do high scoring teams put up 8 runs and lose. The betting public will bet the big name sluggers and inflate the moneyline. Smart bettors look for this type of value and bet the dog for a nice inflated line in their favor. Good pitching beats good hitting and great lineups do get beat by effective pitching and sound defense.
One more costly habit to avoid is neglecting the home/away series. Searching back to the last series will be helpful for the same teams playing each other again. If either team lost in a sweep (happens a lot), they will pay it back with a sweep of their own. Home and away series of 3 to 4 games is unique to baseball and exposes a pattern of play. Be aware of what happened in earlier match-ups. Baseball patterns are very real and are the best handicapping tools to utilize.
Selective parlay betting
Any parlay betting on any sport is when you combine two or more bets together. A two or three or four team parlay can be a combination of moneylines, spread lines, run lines or totals. A nice payoff if you win every pick. One loss and you lose the parlay. Hitting a parlay at 6 to 1 for 3 teams or combination is a popular bet but a harder wager than betting games individually.
Betting baseball parlays has more options than other sports because there is no point spread or time clock. Baseball parlays can pay out a little more with true odds calculations. A good basic 2 team parlay can take place in one game. Betting the moneyline with the total runs in the same game is a sound betting parlay. Not having to pick another game is limiting your risk.
Betting favorites with the under runs is a good option when the schedule of pitching and team matchups are favorable. Getting good value with the underdog at +140 or +160 with the over total at -110 will be a nice payoff. A $20 parlay with odds of +140 and -110 pays net $71.
MLB parlays have a good variety of options
How to use an anchor team with other teams is a multi parlay with an edge. Could be a big favorite with the Dodgers and Kershaw pitching at -220 hooked up with two live dogs. MLB picks are a variety of betting options with moneylines, run lines, totals and favorable money odds.
Betting a dog at +130 for $100 parlay becomes $230 — if it wins — being automatically placed on your second selection. If your second selection is a heavy favorite at -200 and it wins, your payout is $230 divided by the -200 odds or 2 to 1 which equals $115. That is added to the $230 for a $345 total. Your net profit is the $345 minus your $100 parlay bet to equal $245 net profit.
Risk and reward balance
A risk reward proposition is different than other prop bets. It is used in everyday betting angles by bettors looking for a bigger score. Sportsbooks offer parlay betting on most daily betting schedules. Mostly used during NFL games when the general betting public loves the favorite and over parlay on certain teams. However, the payout is usually close to a smaller calculation. With baseball, you are getting a better payout when a +140 or +160 dog wins. That money is parlayed to another dog or favorite for higher payout.
The exact payout on a parlay can be a math problem but finding a parlay calculator online is easy with quick results. Parlays are often considered a suckers bet and only amateurs bet parlays. Filling out parlay cards with the hope of winning a 5 or 6 team parlay is a suckers bet. However, limiting a parlay with a 2 or 3 team combination can be a good hedge strategy.
When you win the first part of your parlay, you have the option or hedge to the second part of your parlay. If the numbers are right, you can bet on the opposite side of your parlay bet and squeeze out a smaller profit.
Baseball run lines
In baseball, the most profitable parlay is using the run lines on an early game with a later game. Laying the -1.5 runs at +140 or +150 will be a nice payout if the second game wins. You can cover or hedge the second game with bet options if there are odds changes. Even live betting opportunity happens during the second game. The run line occurs about 70% of all games played during the baseball season.
Previous years stats show teams play about 50 one run games give or take 4 games either way, which is about 30% for one run games. Hedging parlays is a good strategy to lock in profits or control your perceived losses without to much damage.
The best tip to winning on any sport is discipline. The biggest mistake most gamblers make is betting too many games. Do not get greedy after a winning streak and bet more money and more games. Wait for your selection spot. Baseball gives you a good view in a 3 or 4 game series set. You can afford to wait for that opening game results in a series. You do not have to bet the whole series.
How MLB betting is different
MLB run lines are a different betting format than the NFL, NBA and NCAA spread lines.
Most bettors and fans are accustomed to seeing the point spread on the board. MLB odds are money lines, run lines and total run amount for over and under. Sports bettors use money lines rather than point spreads.
Just picking the winner without the need to cover the spread is a basic money line bet. Laying -130 to -180 is a common money line bet in baseball. You can bet the money line in football and basketball under the same concept — just pick the winner. Money line juice can put a dent in your bank-roll chasing a losing streak.
Baseball has some betting patterns which develop over a long season. There are more winning and losing streaks every month by most teams. Weekend sweeps are very common when pitching rotation is in place. Baseball betting strategy has different angles based on dominant pitching (can be a big advantage), a hot hitting line-up and relief pitching.
A distinctive strategy revolves around the +1.5 run line on the dog and –1.5 run line on favorite. Some bettors look beyond the money line. They bet if a match-up is going to be a one run game or a two run plus game and who will win. The plus money odds laying the 1.5 runs should part of your MLB picks. A distinct betting option that pays more than you risk.