The Contrarian Method Sports Betting System
One of the most popular sports betting systems is the “contrarian method” or strategy going against public betting opinion.
The concept relies on the premise that the majority of public perception is strongly influenced by the media and other brainwashing outlets. The media hype and sensationalism sells their services but is usually wrong more often than not especially with the intricate elements of sports betting.
When the public is loaded on one side of a game, the “contrarian method” is betting the opposite side of public opinion. This strategy is considered smart wagering by the professionals or sharp bettors.
Public perception versus sports books reality is where losers lack perspective.
This betting system makes the point by concluding that the books would have problems staying profitable and keeping their doors open to business. Over time, the general betting public loses more than they win.
Sports books set their lines to get balanced public betting amounts on each side. When a certain spread looks too good to be true, the public will overload that game betting against the books number. Sports books usually wins these bets over the long run.
The public loves to bet the favorite and over total in parlays or teasers. This known betting pattern is usually reflected in the opening line by the oddsmakers. Once the book get the number, they usually put their little adjustment before posting on their betting board.
The posted number with a half point or juice adjustment is called “shading the line”. This involves a point or half point added to the favorite and over total. Instead of using a point shading, they will add extra juice to the line of -115 instead of standard -110. The books know many bettors will bet blindly on their favorites and over so they adjust to gain an edge. Shading the line helps the books mostly with parlay and teaser bets. Teaser bets (add 6 points or minus 6 points) are popular bets that the books dislike unless they shade the extra half point to gain a slight advantage.
This makes business sense for the books to protect any imbalance of money bet. But it is also what a contrarian bettor finds attractive. By betting against the public, they can get better value with the adjusted line by the books. The extra point or half point does add up over the course of the season.
In the NFL over the past 10 seasons, contrarian bettors won 55% of games when public bet a one-sided favorite and over.
However, there are betting streaks when the favorite and over are prevalent. The previous 2016 NFL season was a mix of dogs and favorites covering but the over was a big winner. The playoffs started out with six straight favorites and overs covering before finishing with a 6 and 2 record. Even the Super Bowl was the favorite Patriots covering the -3 and over 58 in the dramatic overtime win. That game was going dog and under the majority of the game until the last few minutes of the game —- not your typical seasonal game.
Fading the public with points and half points is just part of the betting game. It mainly helps sports books to offset the betting options of parlays and teasers that can damage the bottom line. When a six point teaser falls in the middle the books have to pay out on both sides which is a losing proposition for them.
Contrarian betting will be used and successful for those sharp bettors and others in the game of edges. What side the public favors over 70% of the time is no secret and is part of the process of finding value even when the public is on the right side.