Brushing up on MLB Futures: Do the Cubs Still Have A Shot?
Since we don’t have a crystal ball, discussing MLB futures is a bit of a crap shoot at the midway point of the season. But hey, we’re pretty ballsy here at Sports Analytics Simulator so let’s go for it anyways.
A year ago, the Chicago Cubs rode a 25-6 start to a 103-win season and their first World Series trophy in 108 years. It was by all means a fairytale for starving Chicago fans. A year later, the cards read a lot differently for the defending champions.
With a current record of 40-39, the Cubs have been struggling to find themselves in 2017. This comes as no surprise to baseball historians who know that the year after championship seasons often manifests as an awful hangover. The buzz has worn off. The buildup complete. The excitement gone. And in its place, comes anticipation of new successes.
But success hasn’t exactly been this team’s M.O. in 2017. Sure, they’ve never been worse than two games under .500. But they’ve also never exceeded more than four games over. They’ve been exactly .500 16 different times this year.
Plagued by Injuries, Cubs’ MLB Future In Question
One major key to a successful follow up year is a team’s ability to retain their core group. Unfortunately, for the Cubs they’ve been unable to do that. A slew of injuries — namely Jason Heyward (hand), Ben Zobrist (wrist), Kyle Hendricks (finger) and Kris Bryant (ankle) — have set the club back a ways. Add to that the shaky and uncertain play of Addison Russell, and you’ve got a potent cocktail for mediocrity and unmet expectations.
In place of the veteran injured, the Cubs have fielded a handful of young guys. It seems they’re still very much figuring out where they fit in.
“It’s hard to create edginess under those circumstances,” manager Joe Maddon said. “We’re missing some folks from last year, and we’ve been injured a little bit.
“We have some underclassmen playing right now. So we’re breaking in that group.”
For a team hot off unparalleled success in 2016, ‘breaking in’ a group of players isn’t exactly music to fans’ ears. And the result of all this instability is an even younger Cubs team than when they were rebuilding.
You can’t really expect a team to excel under those kinds of circumstance. This isn’t Little Big League.
Where Do They Stand and What Are Their Odds?
The Cubs are currently two games behind the division rival Milwaukee Brewers. The Brewers aren’t faring much better this year, at 42-39. The big question is, can they hold off a late season run by the Cubbies?
“I see, in a perverse way, a lot of benefits being derived from all this,” Maddon said. “Keeping guys healthy and well going into August and September — kind of digging on that.”
Manager Joe Maddon still believes the Cubs can turn things around in time for October.
Banking on an August-September push is all well and good but the team has to stay in contention until then.
For now, Cubs President Theo Epstein and Maddon are convinced the tides are about to turn.
“It’s around the corner, but we need to do what we can to prioritize it,” Epstein said. “It has not come as naturally for us this year, and we need to make it happen.”
Maddon added that he likes his team’s position right now despite a mediocre record. They still have a shot.
Vegas sportsbooks seem to agree with Maddon’s assessment. As of now the Cubs’ MLB futures still look as promising as they did when the season started.
As of today, the Cubs are still 7/1 favorites behind the Astros and Dodgers to win it all.
This means if you bet $100 on the Cubs and they do indeed win the Series, you’ll receive a payout of $800 (7 / 1 x 100). That’s a sum of $800, which includes your win ($700) plus your stake of $100.
