Super Bowl Super Preview
It’s that time of year, folks. Super Bowl LI. You can almost smell the cholesterol and gluttony, the giant pails of chicken wings (or seitan for the vegans out there), the forty layer dips, the pizzas, the potato chips, the sausage casseroles, the Oreo balls, the cakes, and confections. Not to mention the ungodly amounts of alcohol. It’s a veritable heart attack’s dream come true. In America, Super Bowl Sunday is a holiday unto itself. In fact, it comes in second in food consumption behind Thanksgiving. Here’s a statistic for you. Roughly 28,000,000 pounds (13,000,000 kg) of chips, 1.25 billion chicken wings, and 8,000,000 pounds (3,600,000 kg) of guacamole are consumed during the Super Bowl. And that’s just the average. This year alone, humans will consume a projected 1.33 BILLION chicken wings (that’s 166.25 MILLION pounds of chicken and bone–more than 300 times the weight of all 32 NFL teams combined.) My prediction: three heart attacks, one aneurism, and a Patriots victory.
Yes I’m going with the Patriots in this one. This is Tom Brady’s SEVENTH Super Bowl appearance. He’s 39 years old. In better shape than he was ten years ago. And his numbers tell the story of a man determined to bring home the Lombardi. In fact, they tell the story of a man who will go down as a top three greatest QB of all time. Count on it. But that’s another story.
The spread for the game is Patriots by 3, with an over/under of 59 points. Right now, 62 percent of the betting public has their money on New England. Which isn’t necessarily surprising considering the team’s success this year. But it does beg the question: do the Falcons really have a chance of pulling this one out?
In my opinion, it comes down to defense. Can the Falcons slow Tom Brady and company? Let’s put it this way. The only chance Atlanta has of winning hinges on their front four. 44 percent of sacks allowed by New England this season came up the middle. Teams have had a hard time getting around the edge and putting pressure on Brady. Against the blitz, no other QB has posted better numbers this season. In that respect, he’s earned a blitz-QBR of 92.1. This isn’t a guy with happy feet. Sure, he’s learned how to move around in the pocket over the years, but he doesn’t flinch against the pass rush. He hangs in there, and makes the throws when it counts. Meanwhile, the Falcons haven’t been much for the blitz this season. They’ve recorded the third lowest blitz rate this year. Granted they turned up the heat against the Seahawks and Packers in the playoffs. But the Patriots have one of the best offensive lines in the league. They’re not going to give up much in the way of sacks.
Which means, Atlanta’s DBs will have their work cut out for them. Two weeks ago the Steelers ran primarily from a zone defense. And Tom Brady sliced them up like fresh bread. He dined on their secondary like first rate hors d’oeuvres. And here’s Atlanta’s biggest problem: their defense is similar to the Steelers in that they plan a variation of Cover 3. That’s their comfort zone. That’s how they’ve played most of the year. But that won’t cut it in Super Bowl LI. After dismantling Pittsburgh’s Cover 3, it’s hard to imagine a Falcons secondary doing much better. So they’re going to have to switch things up; they’re going to have to play man-to-man coverage. Will Brady fare any worse against the Falcons’ man coverage?
Theoretically, the best chance Atlanta has of slowing Tom Brady begins with slowing his receivers–press coverage at the line of scrimmage, jamming, that sort of thing. Here’s the rub. The Patriots are excellent against man coverage. Their offensive scheme is built to disrupt man-to-man coverage; they use lots of pre-snap motion, crossing patterns, and pick routes. All of which are designed to force defensive backs to play back a bit. But if Daniel Quinn can find ways to counteract these sorts of schemes, they’ve got a chance at keeping things close and keeping Brady honest.
But perhaps the biggest X-Factor for each of these teams is not their quarterbacks or their secondaries, but their rushing games. These are two teams that rely heavily on the passing game. It’s very easy for them to get one dimensional. Here’s a pretty statistic for you: when Pats RB Dion Lewis plays, they win. 16-0 with Lewis in the game. If the Pats can get a good push with their front five, opening holes for Lewis and LaGarrette Blount, they’ve got more than a good chance of winning this game. Then again, the same goes for the Falcons’ rushers, Devonta Freeman and Tevin Coleman. Freeman is a dual threat playmaker. He regularly posts solid numbers on the ground and as a receiver. While the media focuses heavily on Brady and Ryan, look for the rushing game (or potential lack thereof) to make or break this game.
In the end, I’ve got to go with the Patriots in this one. Not because I’m jumping on the bandwagon, but because let’s face it, they’re the best team in football. They have no glaring weaknesses, no obvious flaws. They regularly post at least 27 points a game. And as I’ve said, they’ve got potentially the greatest QB of all time under center.
My prediction: Patriots win 38-31.
