A Look at the NFC Playoff Picture
The season is just about over and the NFL playoff picture is shaping up nicely. While all six spots in the AFC have been filled, there’s still some seeds up for grabs in the NFC. The Cowboys have clinched the East and home field advantage in the Division Round of the Playoffs. The Falcons and Seahawks have also clinched their divisions. Barring a week 17 meltdown Atlanta should clinch a bye week as well. Then there’s the Lions, the Packers, and the Giants. But this article isn’t just about the NFC Playoff Picture. It’s about a more salient issue. That is, who among these teams can beat the Cowboys in the playoffs?
Between the Packers, Falcons, Seahawks, and Giants, there is more than enough talent and firepower to give the Cowboys fits in the division or conference championship rounds. But in order to truly assess these contenders, it’s necessary to first examine Dallas’ weak spots. While they have the second best rush offense in the league and the top rush defense, they are ranked 21 in passing offense and 28 in passing defense.
The Cowboys win games by playing solid situational football. They dominate in time of possession, they convert third downs, and they capitalize in the red zone. Hence why they’ve been so dominant this year. The only team to beat the Cowboys this year was the Giants–and they did it twice. The first game they won 20-19, the second 10-7. Both close contests. But the big point was that the Giants were able to limit Prescott’s productivity. They held him to zero touchdowns in the first game and two interceptions in the second. Against other teams this season, the Cowboys are averaging upwards of 28 points. Against the Giants? Thirteen points. So the Giants seem to have what it takes to beat Dallas. Then again, neither performance was very inspiring on either side. And now the Giants will have other issues to contend with before a possible matchup in Dallas. Namely, they might have to face Green Bay or Seattle in the Wild Card.
But Seattle isn’t exactly a boon to dominate the playoffs. With the loss of Earl Thomas they’ve become vulnerable in downfield attacks. Moreover, they haven’t won a single game on the road against the NFC. With a less than stellar rush offense, the Seahawks wouldn’t fare well against Dallas’ defense. Which means the burden would fall on Russell Wilson to lead them to victory. In this league, it’s highly unlikely that a one-dimensional offense can win consistently, and when Wilson’s options are limited to Jimmy Graham and Doug Baldwin… well, the verdict doesn’t look good for the Seahawks.
Well what about the Lions? Earlier tonight, the Cowboys rolled over them in the second half. While Detroit put up a great fight in the first half, the Boys came out of the break firing on all cylinders. That puts Detroit and the Packers neck and neck in the NFC North. Detroit and Green Bay will face off next week to decide who clinches the division. But the bigger question is, could either of these teams beat the Cowboys in the Division round? The Pack are fresh off a five game win streak. Arguably, the way they’ve been playing they could put up a solid fight against the Boys. Then again, they have one of the worst pass defenses in the league right now. Not to mention, the Cowboys dominated them 30-16 in week 6. With a weak rush offense, a burden similar to Russell Wilson’s would fall on Aaron Rodgers. If anything they’d have to win through the air–which isn’t exactly an issue for veteran QB Aaron Rodgers. Since the week 6 meeting, Rodgers has stepped back into his usual form. On the other side of the ball, Green Bay’s got the tenth best rush defense in the league–so it’s not a far cry to think they could give Elliott some trouble. But the real issue is their leaky pass defense. If they can’t keep Prescott in check, that tenth overall defensive ranking won’t mean much of anything. They’ll be forced to play harder on the pass, leaving room for the Cowboys to rely on Elliott when it counts.
Which leaves us with the Falcons. This season, Head Coach Dan Quinn has brought a new ethos to Atlanta. The team is playing with a level of intensity that fans haven’t seen in a long time. They’re the highest scoring team in the NFL. They’ve got the third best pass offense and the eighth best rush offense. They lost a nail biter to the Seahawks, but won one against the Packers. They beat the Raiders and the Broncos. And to boot, they’ve got a potential NFL MVP in Matt Ryan. If the NFC is going to be won on the offensive side of the ball, the Falcons have the best chance at beating Dallas. Behind the Cowboys, Atlanta has the best O-line in the conference–meaning they can run the ball well with Devonta Freeman and Tevin Coleman, and keep the Cowboys’ defense on the field. Plus, Ryan has one of the deepest arsenals in the game when it comes to passing options. While the Cowboys have the best rush defense in the league, their pass defense leaves some things to be desired. So of all the teams in the hunt for the NFC Conference Championship, the Falcons have the best shot at hanging with the Cowboys.
And then there’s the historical fact that no rookie QB has ever made it to the playoffs. Joe Flacco and Ben Roethlisberger both made it to the AFC Conference Championships in their first years, but neither made it to the Super Bowl. Then again, the Cowboys’ dynamic rookie duo has scoffed at history this whole season, made mincemeat of it, and proven that there’s no precedent for their type of play.
Whatever the case, it’s going to be a wild one in the NFC. And the Cowboys will need to keep laughing at whatever pressure might be building around them and just play hard–much the same way they’ve played all season. If they happen to face the Falcons in the NFC Championship, it may very well shape up to be a classic. And when all of the dust settles, Atlanta may just be the last team Dallas wants to face come January 22.
