Dead Heat in the AFC North: Will it be Baltimore or Pittsburgh?
There’s a dead heat in the AFC North right now. The Baltimore Ravens and Pittsburgh Steelers are currently tied for first in the division at 7-5. But the next two weeks will be crucial in deciding which of these teams will make the playoffs. Whoever wins will most likely grab the no. 3 seed in the AFC. With the competitive state of the AFC West, it’s all but a certainty that the second and third place teams in that division will garner the 5th and 6th seeds in the Wildcard round. So the big question is, who in the AFC North will grab that number 3 seed in these next four weeks?
This Monday night, the Ravens travel to New England for their toughest game of the season. Currently, the spread has the Patriots winning by 16.6 points. Understandable considering Tom Brady is playing with an average QB rating of 113.1, 19 touchdowns on the season and only one interception. But, despite the spread, the Ravens definitely have a shot at victory. Their 7-5 record may not tell the tale, but Baltimore has the best defense in the league right now. They’re allowing as little as 17.3 points a game, a mere 222 yards through the air, plus on throws 15 or more yards down field, they’re holding opponents to 9.2 yards per attempt and a conference-high 35 percent completion percentage. And that’s just pass defense. On the ground, they’re holding opposing backs to 3.4 yards per attempt and 73.8 yards per game. Taking all this into account, it’s certainly possible that the Ravens could snuff out Brady and the high-flying Patriots on their home turf.
What it really comes down to though—and what has been their Achilles’ heel throughout the season—is the Ravens’ offense. Joe Flacco hasn’t exactly been a model quarterback this year. He’s thrown 15 touchdowns on 11 interceptions. That’s an average of nearly one interception per game. Against a team like the Patriots, you simply can’t afford to turn the ball over. In order to win, Flacco will have to keep his interceptions to a minimum and figure a way to control the clock. If not, Baltimore’s defense may see the majority of on-field minutes, which doesn’t bode well against one of the league’s most efficient offenses. While I don’t see the Patriots winning by a 16 point spread, I do see them winning this game—which is where the Steelers might just catch a much-needed break.
This Sunday, they head to Buffalo to face a scrappy Buffalo Bills squad. And the Vegas spread isn’t being quite as kind to the Steelers as it is to the Patriots. The predicted spread is 1.6 points, meaning this game could go either way. However—and this is where things get dicey for Pittsburgh—the Bills have the number one rushing offense in the league, with 162 yards per game, while Pittsburgh is 0-4 against top ten rushing attacks this season. Bills’ RB1 LeSean McCoy is averaging a league high 5.45 yards per carry with consecutive 100-yard performances in the last two weeks. While his backup, Mike Gillislee, is averaging 5.9 yards per carry, and QB Tyrod Taylor, 6.4 yards per carry—meaning the Bills must rely heavily on their running game to control the clock, and keep the Steelers’ offense off the field. This will be absolutely necessary, too, because the Steelers have won their last three games by an average of 15.33 points.
This is due in large part to Le’Veon Bells’ improved performance. In the past three weeks, the Steelers have increased Bell’s attempts by an average of ten carries. And he’s returned the favor by rushing for three consecutive 100-yard games—not exactly good news for a Buffalo squad sitting in the bottom ten of rush defenses. Bills’ linebackers Preston Brown and Zach Brown will have their hands full against Bell, who presents a sharp threat on the outside. But as I said, this game could go either way. It seems that rush offense will figure prominently in this one, meaning both teams will have to grind it out. Still with the momentum of three consecutive wins behind them and the uncertain possibility of the playoffs staring them in the face, the Steelers might just have the motivation they need to muster a win. Then again, the Bills are playing for their lives too. So if Buffalo finds a way to win on the ground—Pittsburgh’s playoff chances might get that much slimmer.
After Week 14, the Ravens face the struggling Philadelphia Eagles in Baltimore. The Eagles are currently 1-6 on the road. And their rookie QB Carson Wentz will face one of his toughest matchups this season against the stout Ravens pass defense. Wentz has thrown 11 interceptions on 12 touchdowns. So look for the Ravens to dominate defensively against Philly. Meanwhile, the Steelers, following their game against Buffalo, play the 4-7-1 Cincinnati Bengals. If Pittsburgh is able to maintain their strength of the last few weeks, this should be an easy one for them.
Which brings us to the crucial Week 16 matchup, in which Baltimore travels to Pittsburgh. Barring a two-game skid from either team, this will be the decider on who’s in and who’s out of the postseason. So while neither team’s fate will likely by decided in the next couple weeks, expect for this Monday night game to be one of the toughest brawls of the year. And considering the stakes, there’s simply too much on the line for either team to play anything but their best football.
