Do the Celtics Have a Case for No. 1?
The short answer is no.
The long answer is yes.
The Celtics currently stand at 43-25, trailing two and a half games behind the Cavaliers and the number one spot. Since Kevin Love’s six-week injury, the Cavs have been struggling to maintain their position in the standings. They went 5-5 in their last ten and only just got Love back from injury. Although most expect them to hang on to the top spot, two and a half games is by no means insurmountable.
We have about 14 games left in the regular season. With Love returning from the bench, the Cavs receive a much needed boost to keep their spot. But Love’s presence doesn’t change the fact that Cleveland has been struggling since the new year started, even when Love was in the lineup.
But the Celtics have been playing top notch basketball all year long. The emergence of Isaiah Thomas as an MVP candidate, top scorer, and all around strong facilitator has given this team life it didn’t know it had. Now they’ve got one of the strongest starting fives in basketball. Thomas, Avery Bradley, Jae Crowder, Al Horford, and Amir Johnson have been gelling as a unit. Their play down the stretch has impressed and surprised many, most of all Boston fans who thought title contention was a ways away.
The big question is, can the Celtics keep up the good work now that Isaiah Thomas is out for two games? Fortunately the next two games are against two of the league’s worst teams. This evening, the Celts face the Brooklyn Nets, the league’s worst team. At this point every game counts and they’d be smart not to let up on the gas against a team that’s been known to surprise better squads this year, albeit irregularly. Then on Sunday they face the Philadelphia 76ers. After that, they’ll have their hands full with Washington who’s been nipping at their heels recently, a mere one and a half games behind the second spot.
At this point, I’d say the Celtics can drop two or three games and still come out on top, especially with their April 5 matchup against Cleveland. But if they really want to raise the stakes, they’ll drop one, go 8-1 in the next nine then beat LeBron and Company at the Garden. It’s a perfect fairytale ending if you ask me.
Here lies the Celtics’ path to the number one seed: nine of the Cavaliers’ final fifteen games are away games. Eight of those fifteen games are against teams over .500, including the Clippers, the Spurs, Boston of course, two games against Atlanta, and a final matchup against Toronto. Although Cleveland nabbed two straight wins at home this week, they dropped six of eight games in the past month. Not to mention they rank 25th in defensive efficiency since the All-Star break. Plus, with the absence of Kevin Love, LeBron and Kyrie Irving have been getting monster minutes–which doesn’t fare well for the final stretch. And, even though Love has returned, he’s still limited by a minutes restriction. Kyle Korver has missed time with a foot injury as well, and both Irving and Iman Shumpert suffered minor injuries on Thursday night. It’s been a woeful stretch of games for the East’s top team. Unfortunately this stretch has opened the door for the Celtics to sneak into the number one spot. Basically, if the Cavs don’t go 10-5 in their final fifteen, Boston has a legitimate chance.
Why? Because in their final 14 games, the Celtics face all of four teams over .500. It’s a veritable dream scenario for Brad Stevens. Realistically speaking, though, the Celtics will need to stay healthy and notch at least 11 wins out of their last 14. The good thing is, this is entirely within the realm of possibility. Only five of the 14 games are away, and those games are against teams in the lower half of the standings (New York, Brooklyn, and Philly). Really the Cavs and Wizards present the only obstacles to the number one spot.
The bottom line for Boston is that they’ve been handling inferior opponents (30-10 vs. sub .500 teams) all season long. If they can keep that up and pull off wins against the Wizards and Cavs at the Garden, the top seed in the playoffs is theirs to take. And while a successful run in the Eastern Conference postseason has been top priority all year for Boston, the chance of accomplishing that with the benefit of home-court advantage is now a very tangible possibility in the final weeks of regular season play.
