Going with the Underdogs and other Baseball Betting Strategies
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When betting on baseball, there are a number of important factors to consider. It’s not as simple as picking the team with the best bullpen or the most hit-conducive stadium. One of the best ways to turn a profit is to look at underdogs with high totals. Statistics have shown that the higher an underdog’s total is, the greater the possibility of getting a solid return on investment. Here are a number of things, including underdogs, to consider when betting baseball:
Starting Pitchers
This one seems pretty straightforward. The most important position on the field (aside from catcher) is the pitcher. Starting pitchers will play the greatest role in determining whether a game will go over or under. Best practice here is to look at each starter’s ERA (earned run average) and WHIP (walks and hits per innings pitched). Ideally the odds will favor a pitcher with a low ERA and a low WHIP to match. The lower the better. But keep in mind the strength of opposing offenses too. A pitcher might statistically be a nightmare for the opposition, but he’ll still have a weakness. For that reason, make sure when you’re looking at starting pitchers that you also examine how batters from the opposing team have fared against him in the past.
Bullpen
It might not be the only thing to consider, but it sure is important. Let’s put this simply. A well-rested bullpen will help a starter maintain their total. A tired one will give out like a bad knee when you need it the most. So before betting on that young starter with the 1.29 ERA, make sure to look at their bullpen. How are they doing? Have they played more than two to three innings recently? Are they hydrated enough? Are their shoes properly tied? These are the important questions.
Stadium
In another article we discussed a number of hitter-friendly stadiums and the impact they have on batter statistics. As stated in that article, the dimensions of the stadium will say a lot about who will excel and who will falter. Some stadiums favor batters, right-handed or left or both; some favor the pitchers. If you look for it, you’ll find that each park lists their outfield dimensions, foul territory space, fence heights, playing surface and altitude. These factors all paint a picture of teams’ potential successes. For example, the ball will travel further and faster at a stadium with a higher altitude. And a righty is more likely to hit a home run over a ten foot fence than they are the Green Monster.
Weather
This one can go hand in hand with the stadium factor. Most importantly, you’ve got to consider which way the wind is blowing. Depending on that, the wind can either be a hitter’s greatest friend or worst enemy. Obviously if you’re in a dome, you can skip this one — but what if the roof is retractable? How might that impact totals? Just don’t forget to check the forecast when placing your bets.
Underdogs with High Totals
Everyone loves a good underdog story — especially when the total is 10.5+ and you get an 11% return on your investment. Historically, statistics have shown that betting underdogs with high totals tends to yield a greater return. The logic goes that the higher the underdog’s total the greater the unpredictability and variance. In these situations, dogs tend to fare rather well. This form of contrarian betting can lead to much greater returns than just playing it safe with underdogs sporting totals below 8.5+. Of course we are not saying you should blindly toss your money at every underdog with a total over 8. It’s just another valuable factor to consider when putting your money down.
There are many more things to keep in mind when betting on the MLB. But these five will go a long way towards improving your returns and sharpening your knowledge.
- Starting Pitchers
- Bullpens
- Stadiums
- Weather
- Underdogs with high totals
Have any questions about baseball betting strategies? Have some sharp tips to share with us? Weigh in in the comments! We’d love to hear from you.
