The Analytical Side of MLB Statistics
Betting MLB
Major League Baseball is gearing up for the 2017 season. Along with the predictions and new emerging star players, there are some analytical statistics that were created from computerized programs to put a new twist on existing player performance. A work in progress since 2010 but now more visible in the media and baseball.
MLB is a long season from April till the World Series in October. After the NBA finals in June, baseball is the only betting sport around. The boys of summer are playing a game of hitting, pitching, fielding and all the things that make baseball different. Bettors have no point spread to worry about or a time clock with a two-minute warning, running out the clock strategy or a last second 3-pointer to kill your bet.
Baseball is a simple game so why complicate it with new statistics to give bettors another set of numbers to decipher.
What is the WAR number and how is it used in the new analytical side of baseball statistics.
WAR is the acronym for the updated performance ranking called Wins Above Replacement. You see it more often and its analytical attempt to quantify a player`s total contribution to their team in this one statistic — a useful reference point to compare replacement players when a starter is injured and out of the line-up.
Statistics are part of every sport and is a revealing factor that grades teams and players. The older baseball stats that most bettors use to handicap games have been around for a century and still reliable. Basics like batting averages, runs batted in (RBl), strikeouts (Ks), walks, home-runs, hits. Pitchers were ranked on wins and losses, earned run average (ERA), strikeouts, walks and their best stuff — velocity and change-up, curve ball and slider.
Now comes WAR to incorporate a newer evaluation method to rank a players contribution to his team —- an estimate of their value to date.
While most other stats like batting averages, hits, home-runs, and ERA are exact mathematical figures, WAR is best suited as an approximation that produces their numerical estimate. A player with a 6.0 WAR ranking might be worth between a 5.0 and 7.0 WAR which means he is an all-star caliber player and possible MVP.
WAR requires a good amount of data to calculate the estimated number. For positional players, WAR needs to calculate their batting runs, base running runs, fielding runs, positional adjustment, league adjustment and replacement runs divided by the runs per win to date.
The formula equation is a long list of ambiguous categories to get the WAR number.
WAR equals [batting runs + base running runs + fielding runs + positional adjustment + league adjustment + replacement runs] divided by runs per win to date.
There are numerous sub-categories that are used to fit the main categories to calculate an estimate for the on going equations to formulate this format. Sounds like a maze of stats looking for a meaning. An example of “base running runs” is based on stolen bases, caught stealing, tagging up on fly ball, first to third success, scoring from home on ground and other factors. A “fielding runs” factor is an outfielder assists, missing the cutoff man, errors causing unearned runs and some others for infielders missing double play opportunities.
It is getting more technical each season with computer simulators becoming more specialized with added data from each days game statistics to predict with more accuracy.
Bettors will benefit greatly from these highly accurate simulations that will be able to predict someday the game outcome almost inning by inning. Analytical computer simulation is progressing to the point of being a significant handicapping tool.
