Sports Betting Adjustment Strategy for Major League Baseball
Betting MLB
Point spread betting is moving over the horizon with football season finished and college basketball season coming to an end after March Madness. The NBA is closing in on their 82 game season with playoffs extending till mid-June.
Major League Baseball is on the scene with spring training and a starting date in April. The adjustment from point spread to money-line, run lines and totals is a different handicapping environment.
What is your betting strategy for the MLB season ?
While most bettors and fans are accustomed to seeing the point spread on the board, MLB odds are money lines, run lines and total run amount for over and under. Sports bettors use money lines rather than point spreads. Just picking the winner without the need to cover the spread is a basic money line bet with more money at risk when betting a baseball favorite. Laying -130 to -180 is a common money line bet in baseball. You can bet the money line in football and basketball under the same concept — just pick the winner. Money line juice can put a dent in your bank-roll if your on a losing streak.
Baseball has some betting patterns which develop over the course of a long season. There are more winning and losing streaks every month by most teams. Weekend sweeps are very common when pitching rotation is in place.
Baseball betting strategy has different angles based on dominant pitching (can be a big advantage), hot hitting line-up, relief pitching and other patterns of play that produce winning streaks from 4 to 10 games on average.
A distinctive strategy revolves around the +1.5 run line on the dog and –1.5 run line on favorite. Some bettors look beyond the money line and ask themselves if a match-up is going to be a one run game or a two run plus game.
One run games occur around 30% plus or minus 2% over the course of a season. This statistic applies to every team.
A “middle run” strategy is a useful bet to cash in when taking the +1.5 runs on dog with money line on favorite. How many 5 to 4 run games or 4 to 3 run games occur on a daily games schedule. You have seen it many times when the home team is tied in the 9th inning and have the edge of batting last in bottom of inning. Tracking a team`s won/lost record with the final score will give you an indication of when a one run game is overdue. Statistically it happens every 3 out of 10 games played and can occur 3 or 4 times in a row.
A powerful adjustment to baseball betting strategy is getting profitable value with laying the run line (–1.5) at a plus money odds. Since one run games happen about 30% of the time, the other 70% is decided by 2 or more runs either way with team match-ups. The –1.5 run bet just needs to land on 2 or more runs and pays you more than you risk. Getting +120 up to +180 on average run line bets is a great value when there is no vig on the money bet.
Before betting on your team, decide the run factor with either a one run game or a two plus run game. There are many times when a top pitcher is –220 on the money line but only +110 on the run line (–1.5 ). How many times do you see the a top pitcher win a 5 to 1 run game or a 6 to 2 run game with a strong bull-pen closing out the last 3 innings. These situational match-ups occur when the opposing team is starting their 4 or 5 pitcher in rotation and your team has been scoring in bunches.
Baseball betting is a game of streaks and slumps. Pick your spot and monitor results for a profitable season.
