Part 3 of Series on European Spread Betting on the Big Fight
A lot of world class sports trading technology and expertise is the major part of the European style of sports betting known as spread betting. Previous articles have discussed the difference between fixed betting odds in the US and the spread betting format used in Europe. This difference is the amount of money you can win or lose with spread betting compared to a fixed amount in the US markets.
When you bet a game in the US market, you know before the game starts how much you win or lose —- a fixed odds bet. Spread betting is based on the final score differential to determine you profit or loss. That is the essence of spread betting where you are risking multiples of your stake or money bet. However, spread betting offers an array of betting markets other than team matchups.
Individual sports like boxing or tennis present more sophisticated options that are similar to propositional bets but with very creative odds.
Here is a look at some of the betting markets posted for the Mayweather/McGregor fight on Saturday night 8/26 in Las Vegas.
- Mayweather by KO, TKO, Technical Decision or DQ —— Sell at 53 or Buy at 59
- McGregor by KO, TKO, Technical Decision or DQ ———–Sell at 15 or Buy at 21
- A prediction of how this fight will be decided. Points are awarded as follows
- Correct outcome = 100 points
- Any other outcome = 0 points
If you are starting to comprehend how the won loss calculations are determined in the various spread betting markets, then you see the high stakes in play within these markets. If you bet Mayweather (buy) and lay the 59, you can win 41 times your money bet. If you lose your bet on Mayweather (Conor wins) your loss is 59 times your money bet. You must have $590 in your account to wager a $10 bet on Mayweather. Your $10 bet can win $410 or lose $590. A crazy outcome for a $10 bet. But in this market of one on one, you know before the match starts what your profit or loss will be since there is no final score like team sports.
- Fight goes the distance of 12 rounds —— YES — Sell at 24 or Buy at 30
- Fight goes the distance of 12 rounds ——–NO —-Sell at 70 or Buy at 76
- A prediction of how the fight will be decided. Points are awarded as follows
- Correct outcome = 100 points
- Any other outcome = 0 points
If you bet YES and buy the 30 you can win 70 times your bet if both fighters are standing after 12 rounds and the fight is over. If you bet NO and BUY the 76 you can win 24 times your money bet if the fight does not last 12 rounds. A YES bet can lose 30 times your bet if the fight does not last 12 rounds. A NO bet can lose 76 times your money bet if the fight goes the full 12 rounds.
- Mayweather wins Decision by Points —— Sell at 24 or Buy at 30
- McGregor wins Decision by Points ——— Sell at 0 or Buy at 2
- A prediction of how the fight will be decided
- Correct outcome = 100 points
- Any other outcome = 0
If the fight goes the distance and Mayweather wins the judges score card decision, your bet on Mayweather returns 70 times (buy 30) your money (100 – 30 = 70). A $10 bet pays out $700. If McGregor wins fight by points on score card, your bet returns 98 times your money bet. A $10 bet pays out $980 (100 – 2 = 98). A loss for Mayweather on decision points, you would lose 30 times your money bet. A loss by McGregor on points and you lose 2 times your money bet.
The operators are saying nobody expects this fight to go the distance. An unlikely outcome but a decision by points is favoring Mayweather with all the faster punches he would be landing for more points.
- Mayweather wins fight (called Win Index) —— Sell at 79 or Buy at 85
- McGregor wins the fight ————————- Sell at 15 or Buy at 21
- A prediction on whether Floyd Mayweather wins this match
- Correct outcome – 100 points
- Any other outcome = 0
Any type of win by Mayweather pays out 15 times your money bet (100-85). If Mayweather loses match you lose 85 times your money bet. A $10 bet on Mayweather returns $150 but a loss costs you $850. You need $850 in your account to make the $10 bet to cover possible loss. A win by McGregor is a profit of 79 times your money (100-21 = 79) or 21 times if he losses. A $10 bet wins $790 or losses $210.
The heat here in Las Vegas will read around 104 degrees but the big heat is being felt by the major sportsbook operators who are taking their anxiety pills over the next few days. The betting public is siding with McGregor while the smart money is laying the -480 to win a hundred. Books are writing tickets at a rate of 80% on McGregor and 20% on Mayweather. However, the average bet on McGregor is $125 and the average bet on Mayweather is $4000.
The book operators have stated an early win by McGregor in the first 5 rounds will produce their biggest losses ever on a sporting event.
They know this matchup is in uncharted waters since McGregor comes from a different fight sport and has never been in a boxing ring before and will the 8 ounce gloves make a difference.
What an event —– only in Las Vegas can they generate soo much buzz and anticipation !!
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