NFL and College Football Early Betting Trends
NFL and college betting trends are a good early indicator to find a hidden weakness or superior trend of certain teams. A hidden betting trend early in a season happens every year when a team or player is playing above or below expectations. An early weak or strong trend is usually not reflected on the book`s point spread, totals or money line until the first five weeks of the season.
This lack of adjusting the lines is where to cash in early before a trend is uncovered by the books. Being one step ahead of a developing trend is profitable.
An early trend to look for is the quarterback play from the rookies. Trend bettors are cashing in on the surprising play of rookie quarterbacks early in the season. Last season, Denver and Philly knew something about their rookie quarterbacks that a few bettors knew and bet the trend. Smart bettors saw an opportunity to go with these new unproven players.
How active were NFL teams in the off-season with smart moves and shrewd draft picks. Betting trends can start in the front office when good deals are done for the next season.
But the best trends are the ones that keep producing. Is three or four weeks a good indication of a winning trend or was it based on a weak schedule or a trendy fluke. When a rookie quarterback faces a much better defense than his previous opponents, can he produce. Consistent quarterback play is crucial to the outcome of any game. The book`s number will eventually catch up with certain trends that are underestimated. A smart bettor will cash in on a solid trend that stays the course.
Average bettors have a tendency to go against a trend if they do not recognize it as legitimate value and the edge you need.
Can these early trends extend beyond the first five weeks of the season. Trendy fads usually have short-term success but fade quickly. Smart bettors have to determine what trends will keep their luster and provide value over the long run.
There are distinct trends that have performed over the years but past results can be very outdated. Some of these popular trends produce a winning percentage over each season.
-
teams coming off a bye week
-
home team dogs
-
losing as a favorite
-
east coast traveling to west coast
-
Monday night game trends and the list goes on
-
All this situational data is compared with the ubiquitous acronym ATS (against the spread). ATS is everywhere to back up a trend — good or bad.
Although some trends have become “legend” over time, staying focused on the current season is more promising than falling into old trends that die hard. Only some teams can perform on a consistent level year in and year out. Teams, players and coaches change each year but the great ones (NE, Pitt, GBay) provide you with the best trend — stability and performance you can expect, win or lose. Value trends are the best but hard to find.
New trending opportunities create a new hope for the fans and the bettor. The competition for new talent is part of the NFL experience. The cool thing about new talent is not the big name or big college but the unknown small college player who gets drafted and takes your team to new heights. The NFL needs to replenish their image each year to keep that competitive spirit people are attracted to and bettors find worthy of their gamble.
Pick your trend wisely and observe what others do not see for a profitable season.
bfraser1011@gmail.com
