How MLB Pitching Statistics Can Be Deceptive
Betting MLB
Baseball is a statistical game of pitching, hitting and defensive numbers. The stats are always changing due to a long season and key positional playing results calculated almost every day of the season. There are stats for pitchers that evaluates pitching talent and records every pitch.
How to handicap and bet pitchers accordingly is the first priority a bettor looks at than any other part of the game.
Pitching match-ups are based on team rotation and can be unbalanced at times when your number one or two pitcher is scheduled against a four or five starter. Most bettors will look at the earned run average (ERA) which can be deceptive. The top pitchers will yield an ERA from 2.5 to 3.5. But there is a good in between level of pitching talent that post around a 4.10 ERA with a winning percentage.
A more closely watched pitching stat is the WHIP, the acronym for walks and hits per nine innings pitched. A pitcher with an ERA of 3.20 and a WHIP of 1.50 is a deceptive comparison of performance.
A pitcher can allow more runners on base with walks and hits but can get the double play ball and get out of the inning with runners in scoring position. If a pitcher has to pitch out of too many jams, his luck will run out and his ERA will balloon from his higher than normal WHIP. The closer to a 1.0 WHIP, the more comfortable you can feel betting on certain pitchers. A control pitcher with a 1.0 WHIP is keeping runners off base.
An overlooked stat is the ratio of ground balls to fly ball outs during the game. Certain pitchers are classified as ground ball pitchers who can keep the ball low with rotation on the ball. This stat, known as the G/F ratio is rated as 1.0. Below that number is more fly balls and above 1.0 is more ground outs. A game can end with 70% grounds and 30% fly outs or 60/40 and vice versa.
How does the G/F ratio relate to handicapping. Baseball is a game of idiosyncrasies that differ from other sports.
A football field in each stadium is 100 yards long and basically all the same except a little different playing surface. Basketball courts are the same dimensions with a soft or hard rim. On the other hand, netball is usually played on a rectangular court, and these courts are kept in good condition through a process called Netball Court Resurfacing.
But the baseball elements of the stadium structure and dimensions are all different. Some favor hitters with shorter fences or less distance down the right field line. Other stadiums favor pitchers with more foul territory for cheap foul ball pop up outs and larger outfield space. Then factor in the weather when the wind is blowing out and fly balls carry over the fence for wind blown homers. There are quite a few variables when betting baseball.
A strikeout pitcher is a classification of K/9, which is a number of strikeouts per 9 innings pitched. When a pitcher has his best stuff on a particular outing, he can strike out 10 to 15 batters and dominate the game. It usually falls around 8 to 10 strikeouts per 9 innings which most strikeout pitchers do not pitch for one game but adds to his next outing.
An H/9 stat is how many homers a pitcher gives up on average per 9 innings. Some of the top pitchers give up the long ball at times when his pitching is flat or straight over the plate without any break. The H/9 can be a deceiving stat when the homer is a one run shot with no runners on base. Not much damage but perhaps a higher H/9 stat than an average pitcher who gives up a lot of hits with runners in scoring position.
Stats can be misleading if you consider the won/lost record. Top pitchers who get no run support but perform at a high level and lose 3 to 2 or 2 to 1 game. Great pitching can shut down opponents but pitchers cannot control lack of hitting and fielding.
To look at previous stats by pitchers and determine how they lost is needed to understand how deceptive stats can be sometimes and when to dismiss them.
