Expanded Sports Betting Will Require Better Analytical Data
The potential of expanded sports betting in the United States is a great opportunity for sports fans who have stayed away from their local bookies or offshore websites operating in the black market. It also presents a major opportunity for sports analytics companies offering predictions or data analytic banks for the serious and recreational sports bettors.
Successful sports bettors understand the risk/reward equation and have made an honest self-assessment of whether they are a recreational player who wagers more for the enjoyment and added excitement of watching a game, or one who seeks an income source. For any kind of player, sports wagering requires various skillsets and decisions. One such decision is where to access information and data, including predictive analytics and how to use it. Most successful Nevada sports bettors have at least one trusted data source and many have numerous ones.
Many such analytics websites already exist, some of them serving the daily fantasy sports (DFS) world and some of them advising sports bettors. All parties will likely expand and offer more products designed for sports bettors, an audience likely to grow to higher levels if sports betting is legalized.
Expanded sports betting in the United States means analytics providers would have more customers and more information available.
New customers to the sports betting world must decide if they are in the entertainment cycle or in the investment business model. You are either a recreational player or looking to really turn a profit.
Once sports bettors make that honest determination, they need to find a source for data as well as analysis on the games they wish to bet on and to gradually learn the betting guides for value and profit. Newer sports bettors will buy picks but the psychology of betting requires bettors to educate themselves for the peaks and valleys of sports betting. Buying picks from an astute handicapper can benefit your bankroll when you know you have limited abilities to survive and need some expertise for the ride.
Betting for entertainment or for profit or both
Investing in the myriad of newer websites that provide data for sports bettors, the player with the most information and analysis has the edge over someone who is just making a guess. Experience counts for bettors and although a veteran coach such as the New England Patriots’ Bill Belichick may instinctively know what to do based on experience rather than data. For sports bettors, utilizing statistics and simulations will produce winning wagers based on better analysis.
One only has to look at the statistical models used by Major League Baseball and the trend in which data-driven general managers are calling the shots from the executive suites to some degree of success. Sports wagering analysis helps the bettor justify their selection process with due diligence.
Some Basic Math Is A Must
The Vegas Stats & Information Network (VSiN), a Las Vegas-based sports wagering multi-channel platform, advises new players to treat sports betting seriously even if you’re in it primarily for fun rather than profit. They believe newer players should stay in the legal markets in the U.S. if legalized and avoid offshore sites. How the math works out in individual states (the cost of making a sports bet) must be advantageous for bettors. Laying more than the standard 11 to 10 is a losing proposition over the long run as the break even point will be harder to match.
The proponents of statistical-based sports analysis advises caution when entering any betting market. When it comes to buying picks or accessing analysis, bettors will probably learn from the analysis and make their own decisions for the experience. It depends on your commitment and how you handle financial risk and can you afford it.
The VSiN show called “A Numbers Game,” cautions newer players to keep in mind that bookmakers usually have to post a number and price on every game, but bettors don’t have to get into every market which is a nice advantage if you use it wisely. Free analysis is available for players, but if you feel you need additional help, buy what you need to place winning bets. New bettors without a mathematical background need a refresher course on odds and numbers that apply to sports betting.
Prospective sports bettors in a regulated U.S. market will have a significant amount of predictive analyses to consider. The high number of websites now offering it for free or a small monthly subscription fee are part of the increasing interest in sports wagering. Many new players are predicted to enroll and join the process for fun, profit and loss and the social acceptance if legalized.
Betting statistics are numbers and parts of the betting selection process
When new and veteran sports bettors analyze games with so much information overload, they lose sight of the overall direction of the game. The parts that are constantly used to uncover some relevant edge are grouped into a statistical pool of numbers and percentages. It goes on and on with no linkage except to form a path of assumption. Data driven services offer a wide array of numbers and statistics way beyond the normal stats used before software programs became main stream data banks. Now there is more to confuse bettors when buried in meaningless information.
When Team A is 8 wins and 3 losses ATS (against the spread) on regular grass, does that type of information have any relevance. Team B is 7 wins and 2 losses over last 3 years on games played in November. These past statistical facts are no indication of future results. These statistics can extend beyond the realm of sanity with no end in sight. Do not assume an outcome based on hard cold percentages. Numbers and statistics can be misleading with no parameters for success.
Betting beyond the spread
Certain statistics, numbers, and percentages do play a role when their priority ranks higher than some useless information. There are more meaningful numbers such as offensive and defensive rankings. When Team A is 30th in the league in pass defense, that is a helpful stat to know. However, when you get bogged down by matchups and injuries or weak outdated statistics, you lose sight of how the game will be decided. Do not lose your focus with too much data injection. Tunnel vision down a one way street keeps you off balance in your decision making process. Once you become too subjective based on data overload leading you on, you lose your objective thought process to successful handicapping.
Your intuition can be a valuable tool when you learn to read the line that the book thinks is the right number. When you love a certain game at minus 3.5 points, let your intuition deal with your strong emotions or “impulsive selection”. When your intuition asks why only minus 3.5 points when you had it at 5 to 6 points, the line is telling you something about the game. You can read into it and go against your first impulse or just pass. Sometimes the best bet is no bet. I find this especially true when betting the over and under. Your first impulse is strong on the over with two offensive teams that play a low scoring game. How many times has this happened to you. Learn to look the other way sometimes.
The growth of sports betting and the possible legalization is a powerful combination of higher levels of opportunity for credible data services to support the casual bettors and pros who need their daily fix of odds and how to beat them. How to decipher the vast amounts of new data that could be relevant or not is your challenge. All the new analytical data is part of the sports betting industry but how you learn to read between the lines is your greatest strength. Numbers sometimes do not matter in games when your focus is on target and covering the spread was just a formality. Analytical data is needed by scientists for solving equations but sports bettors need to manage the data without losing their game flow analysis from too much information.
Remember you can’t win them all — you just need 53% and higher for a profit. Look beyond the spread and don`t become glued to a number. Sometimes the spread does not matter when the game is over — especially when a team dominates the outcome of the game. Visualize a team`s value in certain situational matchups and ignore the spread. Go with that crystal clear feeling of a teams overall power to perform. Can you focus on the old axiom of “reading between the lines” to see a clear direction for accurate results. Find your focal point and feel your instincts on how well a team can play up to their potential. You can mentally observe a winner and also know a loser when you feel it. Some teams just suck as the season moves ahead. It is up to you to separate the good from the bad or mediocre. The tell tale signs are there to find and exploit through intuition or the good data all bettors need to solve their own equation.
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