Betting the Baseball Run Line is Your Best Option
Approximately 30% of baseball games are decided by one run each year. This means around 70% of all games are settled by 2 runs or more. The past 5 years results of each team`s one run games were between 27% to 32% with an average of 30%. Out of 162 games played, each team had a one run game around 48 times (plus or minus 4 games). Each team will play a one run game about 8 to 10 times per month.
Betting the baseball run line is a good option. Tracking this powerful statistic is readily available online through MLB sites or ESPN baseball standings. When you visit the divisional standings records of each team and where they are currently situated in the league, you will see won and lost records at home and away. There is an expanded standing category that lists one run games and extra innings games they have played up to date. You will see winning percentage, day and night records, grass and turf record and one run game records.
By using simple math and division calculations you can figure the exact percentage of one run games each team has played. The current range is between 18% and 38%.
Here are current team calculations and percentages to use for a handicapping tool.
- Boston Red Sox — W/L 68-51 = 119 games divided by 29 (16 -13) = 24%
- NY Yankees — W/L 63-55 = 118 games divided by 35 (14 – 21) = 29%
- Cleveland Indians — W/L 65-52 = 117 games divided by 26 (13-13) = 22%
- Minnesota Twins — W/L 59-58 = 117 games divided by 22 (13-9) = 18%
- Houston Astros — W/L 73-46 = 119 games divided by 22 (14-8) = 18%
- Philadelphia Phillies — W/L 43-75 = 118 games divided by 45 (16-29) = 38%
How do these calculations show a percentage play using the run line. As noted above, each team will play in a one run game between 27% and 32% of the time over the 162 game schedule. With about 40 games left in the season by the end of this week (Aug 20), you can see some teams are way below the average 30% and one team is way above the 30% average. Those teams playing way below 30% average will play more one run games to get back closer to the average.
The teams I would not bet on the run line are the Twins and the Astros. They both have only 22 one run games for the season. Since all teams will play an average of 48 one run games a year (plus or minus 4 games), that indicates the Twins and Astros will play in one run games about 22 to 26 times over the remaining 40 games.
Not a good percentage play if you are laying the 1.5 runs but taking the 1.5 runs is OK if that is your type of bet.
The Cleveland Indians are in the 22% spot and will probably play in at least 20 one run games over the 40 games remaining. Teams like the NY Yankees, who are playing around 29% to 32% one run games for the season, will probably play around 12 one run games out of the 40 games left. That means 28 games out of the 40 games will be won by 2 or more runs — a 70% edge if you pick the winning team and lay the 1.5 runs.
The alternate run lines can be very profitable or take a middle by laying 1.5 runs on each team and look for a 2 plus run final score from either team. It does not matter who wins since you collect the run line at plus and lose the other run line with no vig — example of -1.5 at +140 winner minus the 100 even equals a $40 profit. Profits will go higher if the underdog alternate run line is the winner.
The one team higher than all the others is the Philadelphia Phillies at 38% one run games for the season. These kinds of overlays give you a decided advantage. The Phillies have played in 45 one run games (16-29) with 40 games left. They are way above average for one run games (30%) and probably will play a lot of 2 plus run games over the next 40 games.
The Phillies or their opponents will win by 2 plus run games about 30 to 35 times out of 40 games left. Unless the Phillies are just a freak team that plays too many one run games above average, you can safely bet the -1.5 run line with or against the Phillies.
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