Vegas Books Expect Over $100 million in Betting on Super Bowl 51!
The biggest betting day in Las Vegas Sports Books is fast approaching.
The Vegas scene is a very popular destination for the ultimate bash comprised of gambling, drinking, woman and “other vices”. A man`s playground most of the year but especially during Super Bowl week.
Betting on the Super Bowl is almost like a “rite of passage” for the male ego. Men from all walks of life, from 21 to 99 years old, will back their opinion with all ranges of money bet. Woman also feel the vibes from their significant other and either follow suit or borrow the credit card for a day of shopping away from the insanity.
Public betting on the NFL estimated figures put a number of $130 million will be wagered on the Super Bowl just in legal Nevada and in the billions worldwide.
What a party as the sports books gear up for record crowds and more action they hope to cash in on with two-way betting and great entertainment for all the hype and hoopla surrounding this momentous sporting event. The Super Bowl is so tied into a national flood of anticipation and great expectations that brings people together everywhere to celebrate a game of intense competition with highs and lows to affect you to the end.
Most books started with low wagering limits after the NFC and AFC championship games just to get an idea or handle for where the general betting public was putting some early money. The last few years showed an indication of how public money can switch from first week to the second week. The books know that over sixty percent of public bets happen on the last weekend especially on Super Bowl Sunday. Last year it was all Carolina money early on after their blowout win against Arizona, but then Denver money came in strong the final few days as bettors realized Denver was a real live underdog at plus five points.
The Westgate Super Sports Book
The books have to look into their crystal ball to account for any future trends from previous Super Bowl betting data that shows these trends. The data from the last five Super Bowls shows the underdog covering the spread and winning outright. That combination of taking the points and the money line is a betting trend the public usually bets in the big game but not during the regular season.
Since the public prefers to bet the dog or the money line, the books have to anticipate this strategy and not be too generous with any perceived value in posting their opening line. This became evident with their opening line of -3 on the Patriots over the Falcons. It was a safe line with two weeks to go for any adjustments so they did not want to start off with too much value on either team. Putting up a 5 or 6 point spread would be perceived as good value and could cause too much early money to flow in on the underdog. This early imbalance of sided money is not what the books want or need for the biggest bet game they are trying to manage. It could ruin their whole year with the tremendous amounts of money bet.
Even with the risk involved, the books realize the money bet is spread out over a large number of recreational bettors that will offset the risk of too much money bet by too few bettors. Most risk taking by any entity is to spread out the risk to reduce the possibility of a catastrophic event destroying your bottom line especially in the insurance industry.
The sports books will have such a large number of bets available (props) that most casual bettors will be lucky to win money. The winning bettors will block out all the hype from prop bets and focus on straight bets for their best changes. Books will reap about 40% profit on prop bets and less on those who bet on their favorite team. Last year the books had a hold rate of 16% on the Super Bowl which is basically their return on investment from the estimated $120 million bet on the game —- you do the math.
